I've taken my small USD hedge and pumped it back into Bitcoin. My stop-loss sold off at $9777 and I've bought back in at $10300, taking yet another silly (if not small) loss.
$10k is a big metal barrier for traders. While I still think it's totally possible that Bitcoin crashes to $7500, I realize now that this is only a 25% loss. In my mind, bitcoin has a lower bound cap at $7500, but when I try to visualize its upper bound I'm coming up short. I suppose my guess on that front would be $60k.
So, to recap, if Bitcoin is trading at 10k and I think its lower bound is 7.5k and its upper bound is 60k, it would be quite foolish to stay out of the market at this point.
Even if traditionally Autumn is a slow time for crypto, we are not exactly in traditional times. My non-conspiracy-theorist, non-anarchist, non-libertarian, totally-mainstream girlfriend pointed me to an article the other day about inverted yield bond curves and how the economy is fucked. We've all been saying stuff like this for six months or more, but now everyone else is starting to wake up to all the signs that a devastating financial collapse is right around the corner. Soon™
While some people want to speculate that this would be bad for Bitcoin, I'm on the far end of the other spectrum. Bitcoin has never existed during a recession, and it's entire purpose is to act as a hedge against the fully centralized economy. How could it possibly perform poorly during the next recession? That's exactly what it's there for.
While I'd rather be investing in other projects, Bitcoin has proved to be the gateway drug of DLT. At this point I'd rather use Bitcoin as my hedge (rather than USD) and figure out what to do with it after the fact.
Tread Carefully.
There are sharks in the water.