Key event in the month of August:
Bitcoin most "probably" will be looking at a split. Reasons for same are available at https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/06/07/bitcoin-is-at-an-all-time-high-but-is-it-about-to-self-destruct/#2c244c06cb31
Possible repercussions of the Bitcoin split event:
1. No split actually happens: Bitcoin will start a gradual descent, owing to user disappointment and high transaction fees in the network. There will be an increase in the market cap of all other cryptocurrencies, specifically likes of LiteCoin and Ethereum.
2. Bitcoin doesn't split, but there is consensus and resolution among miners and developers: In this case, we could see a big spike in the bitcoin valuation. This is good for overall network and future of the market as it brings a sense of positivism and hope. It shows that a so-called "decentralized" currency can regulate itself without regulatory or Government influence. Ethereum could slump in the short term, but eventually will start to move upwards as well, due to general positivism. Litecoin might get a dip in short term, but will again ride up owing to overall market condition. In all, the cryptocurrency market will increase tremendously and Bitcoin could start to regain its lost market share from Ethereum and other contenders. Ripple(XRP) will maintain its position and slowly increase over time.
3. Bitcoin splits, there is no consensus: Market will undergo major fluctuations. There will be two versions of bitcoins that will be traded in most exchanges within a span of 2-3 days. Both bitcoin valuation might slump in short term. Litecoin will have a huge growth spike during this short term and then sustain those levels. Ethereum will get a good growth as well, and gain the market leader position. Ripple(XRP) will be consistent in short term.
Assume there are two coins created BTC1 & BTC2, your current 1000 BTC will be available in the both the currencies, meaning you will have 1000 BTC in BTC1 and 1000 BTC in BTC2. But over time BTC1/BTC2 will turn triumphant and increase in its valuation, while the other might sustain or gradually vanish. The "Triumphancy" of BTC1 or BTC2 will be decided by the third entity in the cryptocurrency ecosystem - USER. Users will tend to use/trade the currency which they feel is most usable(fast processing, liquid and available). But the triumphant bitcoin will surge upwards the same way that Ethereuem and Ethereum Classic split and ETH grew to where it currently is.
Based on the possible scenarios coming up in August. This is the short term investment strategies that I would suggest and will be taking for myself
DISCLAIMER: Am not a financial adviser, nor am I an investment adviser. All observations and recommendations are based on logical deductions and basic understanding and value propositions of the underlying technologies of the aforementioned coins. I might or might not have holdings n the above/below mentioned coins at the time of your reading this post, hopefully I do!!!
As Always, in case of cryptocurrency, only invest what you can manage losing.
Bitcoin: 20% (current risk factor: 3/5)
All said and done Bitcoins will persist, in what shape or form, is of question, but they will persist. In case of a split, while most people might recommend stay away from the confusion, I would say there is not much to lose. In case of a split or no split, one version of the Bitcoin is bound to surge.The market has so much momentum now that the bubble itself is being sustained for a long duration. New entrants to market keep waiting for the dip to buy more and accumulate.
Ethereum: 20% (current risk factor: 2/5)
In case of a BTC split, ETH will see the boost up for sure, without an iota of doubt or to say the least at least sustain its levels when rest of market goes tumbling. In case of no split as well, ETH is great from a Short to medium term, due to the plethora of coins and technologies being built on ETH platform. A very safe bet.
LiteCoin : 20% (current risk factor: 3/5)
LiteCoin is a gamble. In case of consensus, I expect LTC to slide down. But in case of a split or status quo, definitely is bound to take an upsurge, if not already taken between the time of writing this post to the actual split.mostly will have an inverse pattern in comparison to BTC, largely due to 'substitutability'. But still in Crypto parlance, LTC is Silver when BTC is Gold.
Ripple : 20%(Super long term) (current risk factor: 1/5)
Ripple is a clear long term winner. I have spoken to my colleagues in India and understand that even semi-public sector banks are in final phases on implementation of Ripple platform for cross-border Remittance services. Being backed by financial institutions and considering the tech heavy requirements of this sector, am confident of Ripple is a long term winner. It could be one of those crypto currencies that you could rely on for your retirement fund!!! (Taking a big leap of faith, here) :)
For the rest 20%, I would suggest investing in few ICO coins. Top of my list recommendations are Civic, Status & Basic Attention Token for their strong and universal use case with scalability.
Its very important to understand the basic concept of each of these crypto-currencies before you invest. That way you get the confidence of an informed decision and would not panic when the market spikes or tumbles.
Am not sure how many regulations/laws I have broken by giving this advisory post. And to close this post, read the DISCLAIMER again.
DISCLAIMER: Am not a financial advisor, nor am I an investment advisor. All observations and recommendations are based on logical deductions and basic understanding and value propositions of the underlying technologies of the aforementioned coins. I might or might not have holdings in the above mentioned coins at the time of your reading this post, hopefully I do!!!
As Always, in case of cryptocurrency, only invest what you can manage losing.
Am keen to hear and know your perspectives on this observation as well. Do share.