Dunning-Kruger Elections

Yep, we live in an age of ignorance. Not the kind of ignorance that can't be helped, mind you, but the willful ignorance of people who can't be bothered with truths that don't align with their preconceived opinions and ideologies.

Have you ever heard the story of McArthur Wheeler? Mr. Wheeler confidently proceeded to rob two banks after he learned that lemon juice is used as an invisible ink. He smeared his face with lemon juice before going on to rob those banks, confident that the lemon juice would hide his face from the security cameras. Of course he was apprehended by the authorities shortly afterwards without any trouble, something mr. Wheeler just could not understand. He became the inspiration for the study by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger with the title "Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments".

This study became the bedrock for the Dunning–Kruger effect, and unfortunately some 30 to 35 percent of American voters seem to have been smitten with this peculiar decease of the mind. When we limit it to just Republicans, it's more like 70 percent: in poll after poll, about 70 percent of Republicans say they don’t think Joe Biden is the legitimate winner of the 2020 election. To believe something that doesn't conform with reality doesn't automatically indicate Dunning-Kruger. I think we all, at some point in our life, believe things that aren't true and that we hang on to beliefs that make us feel comfortable. Cognitive bias is real and omnipresent. But when you're faced, time after time again, with cold hard evidence that you're wrong, there comes a point when you're just willingly ignorant. Or are you? Maybe you're just another McArthur Wheeler:

Psychological research suggests that people, in general, suffer from what has become known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect. They have little insight about the cracks and holes in their expertise. In studies in my research lab, people with severe gaps in knowledge and expertise typically fail to recognize how little they know and how badly they perform. To sum it up, the knowledge and intelligence that are required to be good at a task are often the same qualities needed to recognize that one is not good at that task—and if one lacks such knowledge and intelligence, one remains ignorant that one is not good at that task. This includes political judgment.
_{source: Politico}

That's from a 2016 article about the relationship between Donald Trump's popularity and the Dunning-Kruger effect. I suggest you read it in its entirety because this now goes for the entire Republican party, as it's become Trump's party.

In the below linked video, the Republicans interviewed are perfect examples of what I've just described. You see, the Republican Party has a big problem: they don't have any policies aimed at helping the American people. None. They don't have a political identity of their own. They're not for anything. When was the last time you've caught them discussing their traditional policies, like small government or fiscal responsibility? It used to be that their anti-immigrant stance was cloaked in arguments of fiscal responsibility and frugal government spending; now it's just racism, now it's that "they're criminals, rapists and murderers, and I guess some of them are good people". Only problem is that science says that criminality is lower among immigrants or at the very worst on par with the indigenous population.

Some 60 percent of Republican candidates for the midterm elections are election deniers who actively campaign on that false belief. And that's a problem. They've already announced, just like Trump did in 2020, that they will not accept the election results if they don't win. Some of the more extremist members of this crowd even threaten with civil war and mass violence if they lose again. That's fascism. But as established by Dunning and Kruger, they lack the self-awareness to see just how dangerously close to fascism they've come. It's heartbreaking and scary to see these people lose all touch with reality. In the video, one woman who was there on 6 January 2021 describes the whole ordeal as the most peaceful event she's ever seen. She apparently missed the chants to "hang Mike Pence", the destruction of property and the violence against police. In fact I'm sure she missed it, because she says she shut her TV off when it was all broadcast. And she shut it off because "that's not an accurate depictions of the events"...

Another one says that the crowd in support of his Republican candidate is so small because Facebook has silenced right wing speech. But when asked how he himself learned about the rally, his answer was... Facebook. It's hilarious but tiresome as well, how these Republicans have internalized this victim-mentality. The white male as the greatest victim who's oppressed at every corner. Yeah, right. The most disturbing thing is that hey make this claim with a straight face, not aware at all of the ridiculousness of it all. It's Dunning-Kruger again: they lack the competence to recognize their own incompetence.

Just watch the video. I know, it's TV so there's a chance it's all staged, but I don't think so because it's all in line with what I've seen in online discussions and debates. There's not a rational bone left in the Republican Party, all they're good for is "owning the libs". That's sad, because they're owning no one, but they lack the self-awareness to see it. All they do is fall in line with their mendacious leaders, they've swallowed the Big Lie. I'll leave you with another quote from that 2016 article:

Again, the key to the Dunning-Kruger Effect is not that unknowledgeable voters are uninformed; it is that they are often misinformed—their heads filled with false data, facts and theories that can lead to misguided conclusions held with tenacious confidence and extreme partisanship, perhaps some that make them nod in agreement with Trump at his rallies.

Trump himself also exemplifies this exact pattern, showing how the Dunning-Kruger Effect can lead to what seems an indomitable sense of certainty. All it takes is not knowing the point at which the proper application of a sensible idea turns into malpractice.
_{source: Politico}

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