I don't know if I agree with you on this one, to be honest. I get where you're coming from and I get what you're saying about the media, and I know better than to take the polls at face value. On the other hand, though, in 2016 Trump was the big unknown, the wild card, the loose cannon, as opposed to Clinton, who was as boring and predictable as they come. And he won by a few votes, at most.
Now at least they'd know what they would be voting for. And let's not forget, a lot of his choices over the last few years hurt a lot of American citizens, people who now get to pay for his silly tariff war with China, just to mention one. And the wall argument got really old really fast. I mean, I don't know how you can just ignore all of the facts and vote for the guy again.
On the other hand I can see how it could go right the way you predicted. Especially because, the way I see it, the other side is going to play it safe, again. Joe Biden's opposition line seems to sum up in something like "Don't you miss Obama? 'Cause I sure do miss Obama a lot". And I'm not sure that works anymore. But that seems to be the scourge of every left-wing party I know, including here in Italy. They somehow got to represent the system, whereas in the past they used to be the ones going against it. Maybe they'll have to find a bit of that revolutionary spirit again?