A little more than a week to go before the Virginia gubernatorial election. Close race according to the polling average.
Though interesting that Youngkin hasn't had a poll where he is above 50%. Highest he's gotten was 48% from a partisan Trafalgar poll and an Emerson poll at the beginning of October. McAuliffe on the other hand has had a number of polls above 50%, and his highest poll was 52% from Fox News. Highest polling average for Youngkin has been 46%. Lowest polling average for McAuliffe has been 46%. Highest polling average for McAuliffe has been 50%.
In general that's not what you'd expect if the eventual winner is Youngkin. I think I'm lean McAuliffe here.
It is eerily like the 2017 Governor race polling. That race had close polling, in some cases with Gillespie leading. But Gillespie never polled above 50% either. He had one poll as high as 48%. On election day the polling average was Northam +3.3 with Gillespie at 44.4%. The final result was +8.9% Northam with Gillespie receiving 45.0%. Gillespie's polling was spot on. Northam's underestimated his support as undecideds broke to him.
Though the environment is different than 2017. Biden's approval rating in Virginia has declined. Only 48% of Virginia voters approve. 49% disapprove. So there are general headwinds for McAuliffe in an otherwise blue state.
