JAMA research letter showing Ohio's vaccine lottery did not increase adult vaccination rates compared to the rest of the US (excluding states that also had lotteries). While it did increase after the lottery, adult vaccination rates elsewhere also increased. The authors suggest that perhaps teens becoming eligible during this period spurred adults to get vaccinated.
Unfortunate, I had high hopes for the lottery.
Though I'm curious about if they had the right comparison methods. Those pre-lottery trends are quite different. Most importantly I would think it better to look at rates per unvaccinated populations as any rate effect would be affected by how many people are left to vaccinate.
A previous study out of Oberlin found the Ohio lottery increased vaccination rates in the first two weeks, but then returned to baseline. Suggesting any marginal effect is likely shortlived. That study looked at the county level and compared to demographically similar counties outside of Ohio.
We may need more targeted vaccination outreach than state incentive programs to really get the last groups vaccinated.
Link to Oberlin study: https://www2.oberlin.edu/faculty/pbrehm/BrehmBrehmSaavedra_Ohio_Vax_Lottery.pdf
