Here's what the Beveridge curve looks like at this point.
The Beveridge curve shows the relationship between job openings and unemployment. Generally it slopes downward with unemployment rising as openings fall. Recessions tend to have high unemployment and low job vacancies while expansions tend to have low unemployment and high vacancies.
About the best case scenario would be what we are seeing so far: a large decline in openings that doesn't cause a surge in unemployment. The so-called "soft landing". The Fed still is predicting this as possible with unemployment increasing to ~4.4% over the year ahead and inflation coming down close to the 2% target.
I made this chart to combine job openings, unemployment, and the labor force participation.
More to my earlier point with the job market, the small increase in unemployment in August was essentially all because of an increase in the labor force. So not only did we see a large decline in job openings, but the small increase in unemployment wasn't due to an increase in layoffs, it was due to more people coming back into the labor force and looking for work.
This is essentially the best case scenario as the Fed raises interest rates to tamp down inflation- to not see an increase in layoffs. Employment remains strong. We'll see if it continues.
