On the last day of the third quarter, GDPNow is estimating Q3 GDP as 2.4%. A large upward correction from the previous update. This is largely due to upward revisions to private domestic investment, personal consumption, and net exports based on recent economic data.
It is now at the top end of the Blue Chip consensus range.
The actual GDP release will be at the end of October.
Note GDPNow is a running nowcast estimate of GDP modeled from the economic data that comprises GDP. Since it is only modeling with what data is available, it can bounce around during the quarter as more data is released.
GDPNow isn't gospel, but since it is relying on the actual data released during the quarter, it tends to be fairly accurate as it gets close to the release date. At this point 27 days from the actual release GDPNow has an average error of ~1%. GDPNow's final Q2 estimate was about ~0.3% off the actual release.
It'd be great to see such a strong GDP quarter.
