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Youp

@youp

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2017-06-22 22:49

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youp

7y

Have we broken out?

Have we broken out?

The total crypto market has broken out of the downtrend on the weekly chart. For bitcoin however, it's not so clear. Depending on the exchange data and the way the down sloping trend line is drawn, it

$ 0.198

11

youp

7y

Wave 3 progressing, part I

Wave 3 progressing, part I

The wave 2 bottom has been set at almost exactly the 61.8% retracement of wave 1. Wave 2 started on June 26 and ended October 23. So, wave 2 lasted for almost four months as opposed to six months for wave

$ 0.175

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youp

7y

Wave 2 progressing, part IX

Wave 2 progressing, part IX

Not much has happened during the week. If anything, yesterday's move up makes it less likely we're in an impulse down. More likely we've completed an orange b-wave of subminuette degree and have started

youp

7y

More than two years of blogging on crypto; what are the results?

More than two years of blogging on crypto; what are the results?

The main purpose of this blog is to order and store my thoughts. I generally remember what I've thought and expected around a certain time and price. But when it's written down, the memory is, of course,

youp

7y

Wave 2 progressing, part VIII

Wave 2 progressing, part VIII

Wave 2 is progressing as expected. A first move down, which looks like an impulse, has completed and with that the first leg down. Zooming in to the 3 hour chart, we can see that prices are breaking through

youp

7y

Halvings, stock to flow and bitcoin prices

Halvings, stock to flow and bitcoin prices

The current theoretical price for bitcoin, according to the 'Stock to Flow' model is about $8300. So, we're nicely on target. At the next halving, half of May 2020, the theoretical price goes to $55k.

youp

7y

Wave 2 progressing, part VII

Wave 2 progressing, part VII

Just a quick update as prices seem to be finding a bottom on both a downsloping trendline and the 233 daily moving average (yes, I have a soft spot for Fibonacci numbers). There is some more room to the

youp

7y

Wave 2 progressing, part VI

Wave 2 progressing, part VI

We're going down and that's good news because the wave 4 triangle scenario is now of the charts, meaning when this correction ends, assuming we're not going crazy down, wave 2 ends and wave 3 will be ready

youp

7y

litecoin leading bitcoin

litecoin leading bitcoin

While bitcoin is still on holiday and categorically refuses to move, some of the altcoins are significantly improving. Litecoin especially, has the habit of changing trend just before bitcoin does. Given

youp

7y

What if bitcoin is in a triangle?

What if bitcoin is in a triangle?

For some time I have been working with the above count which assumes wave 1 has completed, and we're now in a wave 2 with a gigantic wave 3 to follow that'll lead us into moon territory. However, the wave

youp

7y

Another month, another 'Stock to Flow' multiple

Another month, another 'Stock to Flow' multiple

The 'stock to flow' multiple for August clocked in at 1.71, which means that at the end of August the price of bitcoin was 1.71 times its theoretical value. End of July it was at 1.80. So, price is still

youp

7y

Wave 2 progressing, part V

Wave 2 progressing, part V

As expected, prices are moving nicely lower, trying to find a bottom. When we look at the volume profile indicator (right side of the chart) - this indicator points to important levels of support and

youp

7y

Counting chickens before they hatch

Counting chickens before they hatch

One of the more pleasant activities in life is to calculate yourself into great prosperity. And that's exactly what we're going to do. Now, I'm not sure about the above Elliott labels, but it seems pretty

youp

7y

Litecoin is ready to rally (more detailed chart added)

Litecoin is ready to rally (more detailed chart added)

Litecoin often preceeds bitcoin in the sense that it starts moving, either up or down, just a bit earlier than the crypto king. While the 2017 top and 2018 bottom occurred approximately at about the same

youp

7y

Wave 2 progressing, part IV

Wave 2 progressing, part IV

Well, how wrong can you be. I thought we were going to correct sideways because the 3 and 8 hour chart looked very oversold, only to see prices drop about $1500. Better not to look anymore at the shorter

youp

7y

Wave 2 progressing, part III

Wave 2 progressing, part III

Corrections are notoriously difficult and this one is no exception. On the one hand there is the argument that we should go down more as the 21 exponential and simple moving averages have not been hit;

youp

7y

Wave 2 progressing, part II

Wave 2 progressing, part II

Wave X of the wave 2 correction seems to be completing. It went up further and faster than I expected which is a sign of strength. It was also a sign of worry as I am holding puts. Maybe I should not have

youp

7y

Another month, another S2F value

Another month, another S2F value

Another month has passed and we have a new S2F value of 1.80. This is on the higher side of the spectrum for this time in the cycle, suggesting significantly more sideways to down price action. The Mayer

youp

7y

The altcoin massacre, how to profit from it

The altcoin massacre, how to profit from it

The altcoins have not been doing very well, to put it mildly. Let's look at a few. First, ethereum. Above is the weekly renko chart, below it, the daily renko chart. Ethereum, like many other altcoins,

youp

7y

Wave 2 progressing

Wave 2 progressing

First the daily chart with Elliott count. A bit more detail on the 8 hour chart. We went a bit further down than expected in the red b wave. Although without ruining the count. So far it all still looks

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