The current oil crisis, triggered by the conflict in Iran and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March 2026, represents the largest disruption to global oil supply since the 1970s. Approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil has stopped flowing, pushing Brent prices above $100–110 per barrel and driving up fuel costs across Europe. Although the EU relies directly on only about 6% of its crude through this route, global markets have caused widespread increases in gasoline, diesel, and related products. The European Union holds strategic reserves for around 90 days and has diversified its suppliers (with the United States and Norway as the main sources), but resilience varies significantly by country: dependence on imports, share of renewables, nuclear power, and adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).
In this context, several countries stand out for their strong preparedness. Norway clearly leads the ranking. As a major producer of oil and gas from the North Sea, it combines energy self-sufficiency with an advanced green transition. In 2025–2026, 96% of new vehicle sales were electric, and its car fleet already has more electric vehicles than gasoline ones. Its abundant hydropower covers a large part of electricity demand, minimizing the impact of oil prices on transportation and industry.
Sweden ranks highly thanks to its low external energy dependence (only 27% in recent data, among the lowest in the EU) and a balanced energy mix of hydropower, wind, biomass, and nuclear power. This allows it to better absorb external shocks than countries more reliant on fossil fuels.
France benefits enormously from its powerful nuclear fleet, which generates around 65–70% of its electricity. By depending less on gas and oil for power generation, its industrial and heating costs remain more stable, and its heavy industry withstands crude price surges better. It also continues investing in the electrification of transport.
Spain and Denmark complete the group of the best prepared. Spain has largely decoupled electricity prices from gas thanks to the strong deployment of wind and solar power, achieving some of the lowest wholesale electricity prices in Europe even during the crisis. Denmark stands out for its high penetration of renewables, especially wind power, in electricity generation.
In conclusion, the Nordic countries and France demonstrate that combining domestic production or stable nuclear power with a strong push for renewables and transport electrification is the best defense against oil shocks. The 2026 crisis not only increases Europe’s energy bill by billions but also accelerates the need for transition: those who invested earlier pay less and depend less on foreign sources. The lesson is clear: the energy security of the future is built by diversifying now.
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