SpaceX, the pioneering space exploration and satellite internet company led by Elon Musk, has recently seen its publicly traded shares fall below the initial public offering (IPO) price, marking a notable shift after the hype surrounding its record-breaking debut earlier this year.
The company went public on June 12, 2026, in what became one of the largest IPOs in history. Shares were priced at $135, raising approximately $75 billion and valuing SpaceX at around $1.75 trillion or higher at opening. The stock opened strongly above the IPO price and quickly surged, reaching intraday highs near $225 and pushing the market capitalization toward or above $2 trillion at its peak.
However, the initial enthusiasm has cooled. As of mid-July 2026, SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) has traded as low as around or slightly below the $135 IPO level in recent sessions, reflecting broader market pressures, profit-taking by early investors, and questions about sustaining such an elevated valuation.
Several elements appear to be contributing to the pullback:
Lockup Expirations and Selling Pressure: Significant share unlock windows are approaching or have begun, allowing early investors and employees to sell portions of their holdings. This has increased supply in the market.
High Valuation Scrutiny: Analysts have noted that even at the IPO pricing, SpaceX carried premium multiples. Independent valuations, such as one from Morningstar, placed a fair value significantly below private market levels, highlighting potential overvaluation risks tied to Starlink growth, Starship development, and new ventures.
Market Sentiment and Sector Volatility: The broader tech and growth stock sector has faced headwinds, and SpaceX has not been immune. Post-IPO performance for high-profile listings often sees corrections as reality replaces initial excitement.
Despite the dip, SpaceX remains one of the most valuable public companies, with ongoing milestones in reusable rocketry, satellite constellation expansion, and potential new revenue streams. Long-term bulls point to execution on ambitious goals like Mars missions and global broadband as drivers for future recovery.
For those who received allocations at the $135 IPO price, many are still in positive territory depending on exact entry points, though paper losses have mounted for those buying at the peak. The stock's volatility underscores the high-risk, high-reward nature of investing in a company at the forefront of space technology.
Analysts remain divided: some see potential for the shares to rebound toward $220 or higher by the end of 2026 if operational targets are met, while others caution that multiples may need to compress further.
As SpaceX continues to push the boundaries of space innovation, its stock performance will likely hinge on tangible progress amid intense competition and execution challenges. Investors should weigh the groundbreaking potential against the realities of public market expectations.
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