The last full week of June has brought the Caribbean perilously close to a military flashpoint, deepened political paralysis in two of its most troubled nations, and forced an urgent recalibration of regional unity as the hurricane season gathers momentum.
The standoff in the Florida Straits nearly turned catastrophic on June 23. A Cuban patrol boat, the Río Cauto, came within 40 meters of the USS Gridley during what the Pentagon described as an “unsafe and aggressive approach” near the maritime exclusion zone. The incident, which saw warning shots fired into the water by the U.S. destroyer, is the closest the two nations have come to direct military collision in decades. Havana insists the Río Cauto was defending sovereign waters from a vessel that had strayed inside the 12-nautical-mile limit.
Diplomatic channels are now frantically active. Mexico’s Foreign Secretary confirmed on June 25 that a second humanitarian fuel shipment will depart Veracruz next week, but warned that without a broader humanitarian corridor, Cuba faces “catastrophic social collapse.” Inside the island, the mood is one of exhausted defiance. Nightly cacerolazos have spread to provincial capitals like Camagüey and Las Tunas, while an open letter signed by over 200 artists and intellectuals — including several once close to the government — called for an immediate national dialogue to end the crisis.
The UN-backed Gang Suppression Force launched its first major operation in the lower reaches of Cité Soleil on June 22, with Chadian and Kenyan units engaging in sustained firefights against the G9 coalition. While the force reported killing a senior gang commander, civilian casualties have been reported, and Médecins Sans Frontières says it cannot reach the wounded. The operation has displaced an additional 3,200 people, swelling the IDP population to over 1.5 million.
Politically, the impasse is absolute. The transitional council failed for the third time this month to agree on a timeline for elections, with factions accusing each other of seeking to prolong their tenure. The August election date is now officially “suspended indefinitely,” and diplomatic pressure from the U.S., Canada, and CARICOM is failing to break the deadlock.
After weeks of institutional paralysis, a fragile compromise was brokered by Barbados’ Mia Mottley and St. Vincent’s Ralph Gonsalves. Trinidad and Tobago agreed on June 25 to rejoin CARICOM ministerial meetings pending a special Heads of Government session on July 10 that will review the Secretary-General selection process and consider a time-bound transition. In a concession, Dr. Carla Barnett has privately indicated she would step down by December 2026 if a transparent succession mechanism is established. The deal, while tentative, has saved the bloc from outright fracture.
The economic divergence yawns ever wider. Guyana’s sovereign wealth fund hit $12.3 billion this week as oil production reached 1.2 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, the IMF warned that Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, and The Bahamas face “acute debt distress risk” unless they restructure obligations and diversify revenue. Hurricane Beryl’s damage to Dominica’s agriculture is estimated at $150 million, a bill the island can scarcely afford.
Tropical depression watches are already up for the Windward Islands as a new wave in the central Atlantic shows a 70% chance of cyclonic formation before the month ends. For a region stretched thin, there is little margin left.
