As you have probably noticed, we have had a pretty big sell off. What can we expect going forward?
As I expected, we were consolidating in a very tight range and that a major move was imminent. Well, we definitely got that. It did come a little earlier than I expected, seeing there was plenty of room to go higher but you can't always hit the nail on the head perfectly every time. Now we're consolidating again as we should after a sharp downwards move and I do expect a minor rally. I plotted a fib to give an idea on how high we can retrace from swing high to low. Our common areas were looking to head to are at the 38% retracement area at 6414 or the 50% at 6474. Both are valid areas to retest before another big leg down.
Seeing as we broke down very sharply, and wiping out all the gains since early Sept in one candle, I have very little to be bullish on right now. I don't believe this was a fake out seeing the weak finish on the daily close, so lower price action should commence after proper retracements stated above.
We are probably in the middle of forming a bear flag but its too early to chart on the 4HR scale but the symmetrical triangle break down takes us to the bottom of the well established descending triangle (horizontal orange line) at 6040. This area has been a very critical area of support on recent sell offs so we must hold this area. I do expect us to show some support down there at first. If we breach this area, however, I would make a bet that many stops are sitting right under that area. This will create a domino effect which should accelerate the price downwards. Unfortunately, thats what it looks like from here after recent movements.
We do have some time though. Still too many over-leveraged shorts, still early in the consolidation pattern, and we still have plenty of room left in the descending triangle to play around in if it wanted to. Overall, this is as bearish as it gets however we should see a move up in price before we start going back down.
Hope this helps!
Good luck!
