Only a few days have elapsed since Samvel Shahramanyan, the president of the now-defunct former republic, signed the declaration dissolving the Armenian independent entity of Nagorno-Karabakh.
However, the fundamental causes of the ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan—which has resulted in two actual wars in 1992 and 2020 and over 30 000 deaths—seem much more urgent and worrisome than before.
In a conversation with a group of lawmakers from his department, American Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed concern about a potential future invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan, according to the American publication politico.com. Blinken would have disclosed that the State Department would be considering sanctions against Azerbaijan in relation to the September attack in Nagorno-Karabakh and would not be planning to extend an exemption for the provision of American military assistance to Baku. The Secretary of State would, however, have several reasons to be concerned despite having reportedly voiced some confidence in the ongoing diplomatic discussions between the two States.
In reality, Aliyev has reconsidered the idea of building a corridor to connect the nation to the Nakhichevan exclave, a region of Azerbaijani soil that is bordered by Turkey and divided from the rest of the nation by Armenia.
Given that the Azerbaijani president has not ruled out a forceful solution to the problem, Armenia is completely opposed to this prospect and views Azerbaijani objectives as a danger to national security. During a visit in the exclave in September of last year, Aliyev and Recep Erdogan of Turkey discussed the opening of the passage. Strong ties exist between Azerbaijan and Turkey, to the point where Heydar Aliyev, the father of the current president of Azerbaijan, described the two nations as one nation with two states.
Ilham Aliyev, who is backed by Turkey, has never shied away from calling Armenia "Western Azerbaijan." Washington is concerned that Baku may launch a large-scale offensive in Armenia, which is now the transit area for Azeri shipments heading to the exclave of Nakhichevan, after the operation in Nagorno.
Then, there are two more factors to think about that are loosely linked. The International Criminal Court, which issued a warrant for Vladimir Putin's arrest, has received the approval of the Armenian parliament, according to Vahagn Khachaturyan, the country's president. A "hostile step" in Moscow's eyes, replete with the summoning of the Armenian ambassador. The Russian peacekeeping force's continued presence in the former Nagorno-Karabakh on Armenian land is the other issue Armenia has with Moscow. While Russian Foreign Ministry representative Maria Zakharova believes that the Armenian recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory has changed the conditions for the presence of the forces of peace in the region and moved the discussion on the matter to Baku, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan believes that the soldiers should return to Russia. On October 5, however, Russian forces started to leave the area, thereby opening the door for Azerbaijan to make judgments.
Very few actions would be necessary in such a delicate circumstance to bring about the tempting Balkanization of the Caucasus that the Russian Federation's critics desire.
