... given the political nature of Hollywood yeah, it will likely be nominated for everything.

That's very like. Unfortunatelly.

... gangster movie where the cartel dude goes to get trans surgery and it was a musical...

You must be talking about Emilia Pérez.

In this case, I think these are completely different situations, because we now have Christopher Nolan in the equation (with a movie that has already got the $1 billion mark).