I want to start this post by saying I have no idea what is going to happen in the next couple of months. No one does. We are all sitting on the edge waiting for that last run-up of this cycle that might still happen soon. Or it could be that it has already happened and I'm waiting for nothing. Maybe the markets goes down for a couple of months on years or maybe bitcoin has gotten too big that the cycles no longer matter and you see a steady growth in the asset from here out. Like I said I have no idea but I'm keeping a close eye on the market in the weeks to come.
If the market follows the last two trends we should see a fast run up to around 100k bitcoin or more and then we should see a drop over the next two years back down to 20k with a dip even below that before the next run starts again after the halving. This would take another 4 years and we would be looking at a 1 millions dollars per bitcoin. This is of course rough estimates but the pattern would be close to this. And for alts they would go up after bitcoin went down and then drop as well. This is still on the table but with Omicron and inflation piling up we are in a weird spot to predict anything. And of course this is just what "should" happen but is in no way in set in stone. The market is impossible to predict.
There is also a good chance that all these cycles don't matter any more and now that bitcoin has become mainstream and is owned by big investment firms as well as a country that the coin will be more stable than it has been in the past. I say more stable as we won't see 3x and 80% drops but we will still see major swings of 10% to 20% a day at times. This means the bottom shouldn't go much lower from here on out and the asset can steadily grow like the Amazon stock does.
There are also a lot of working dapps out something that we did not see in 2017 which will keep a lot of users in the space even during a downtrend.
If you are holding for 4 plus years you should, in theory, be fine. Even if bitcoin drops for a year or two you should, in theory, you will get your money back and then some during the next cycle. And if the cycles are done Bitcoin should hold above a certain price and you will be fine either way. But I want to diversify my assets more and after being in that last bear market of 2 years I don't want to wait through another one. There is a chance that the 60Ks were the top and this has me worried that I missed my chance to sell some of my assets. But I'm still in as I think the next weeks will see another upswing. Maybe it is just hopium but with Omicron it's not like I can do much right now anyways so I might as well wait it out.
But what I can say with confidence is crypto has made it. This is different than 2017 when it was all ICOs and broken promises and the world of crypto is definitely here to stay. I don't know in what shape or what chains will win but I feel much more confident in the space than I did last cycle. If there is a big drop like in 2018 I'm going to do some major shopping for some coins.
What do you think? Is the bull run over or is that big upswing around the corner?
