올 상반기 가상화폐 시세가 반토막 나면서 채굴업자들은 채굴 비용조차 감당하기 힘든 상황인 것으로 나타났다. 채굴 원가가 대규모 채굴 사업자인 경우 8600달러, 개인 채굴인 경우 1만200달러대로 추산된다.
가상화폐 시세 하락으로 인해 채굴원가도 못 건지는 상황이 되자, 채굴업의 판도에 많은 영향을 미치고 있다.
채굴수익 부진으로 광산 권력이 소수의 손에 통합되어 소위 말하는 51%의 공격을 수행할 위험성이 커질 수 있고, 비트메인, 비트퓨리 같은 대규모 채굴기업에 권력이 더 집중될 수도 있는 상황이다.
채굴(마이닝)의 형태에도 변화가 있을 것으로 보인다. 대규모 채굴기업은 자체 칩과 기계를 설계해 제조하는가 하면 원자력 발전소까지 연결하는 시도를 하고 있다. 소규모 광부들은 더 저렴한 비용으로 이전하기를 원하지만, 광산 기계를 호스팅하는 업체들은 9000달러에서 1만달러 넘는 고객들에게만 이익을 줄 것이라며 비트코인이 상승할 것에 베팅하며 시설들을 늘려 나가고 있는 상황이다.
A global chipmaking giant is blaming a slump in bitcoin mining for its lowered outlook
A major Asian chip manufacturer cut its revenue forecast for the year, citing uncertainty in cryptocurrency "mining" demand as a factor.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, or TSMC, is the largest semiconductor foundry company in the world. Bernstein analysts estimate the majority of demand for TSMC's special cryptocurrency mining chips comes from Bitmain, a secretive Chinese company that has become the industry leader for selling hardware to create bitcoins by mining.
"We forecast TSMC's 2018 revenue in U.S. dollar will be about 10 percent, rather than the previously indicated 10 percent to 15 percent, due to the smartphone weakness and the uncertainty in cryptocurrency mining demand," C.C. Wei, co-chief executive officer and president, said Thursday, according to a FactSet transcript of the company's earnings call.
Morgan Stanley estimates that about 10 percent of Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue now depends on cryptocurrency mining demand. If bitcoin's price were to drop, that could cut further into TSMC's lowered revenue forecast, equity analyst Charlie Chan and his team said in a note Thursday.
"Even if the Bitcoin price stays the same in 2H18, we believe mining profits would drop rapidly, according to our simulation," the report said.
Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable
Bitcoin is at an inflection point.
Even with the price back above $8,000, many of the so-called miners that perform the complex calculations to generate the digital currency are at risk of turning unprofitable. If prices drop below that threshold again for an extended period, there will likely be a swifter consolidation to industrial-scale mining. That could knock out the last guy-in-a-dorm-room operations and leave holders of the currency vulnerable to the dictates of the big miners.
“It’s totally different this year than last year,” Silicon Valley venture capitalist Bill Tai said in an interview. “The bitcoin mining industry was this mysterious dark cottage industry, and it’s about to grow up and about to have elements of institutional scalability at all levels."
More concentration could also hold a lot of sway over Bitcoin’s price. Miners hold between 20 percent and 30 percent of all Bitcoins, according to Lucas Nuzzi, a senior analyst at Digital Asset Research. Bitfury alone has mined more than 1 million Bitcoins, Tai said. The company has already sold coins to defray operating expenses. If miners are forced to sell more, that could depress Bitcoin’s price.
With mining power -- so-called hashrate -- aggregated in fewer hands, that also increases the risk that a few miners could band together to execute a so-called 51-percent attack -- where they would control enough of the transactions to dictate changes in the development of the blockchain to suit their preferences.
Unlike smaller miners, which buy hardware from other manufacturers, Bitmain and Bitfury design and make their own chips and machines. The large players also can place huge orders for parts and even buy electricity at a discount.
“We can buy and source orders of magnitude more," Tai said. "We can buy silicon in large quantities and commit to the electricity grid in chunk sizes. We have the cash to make the deposits and set them up." The company is in discussions to connect to a nuclear power plant that’s going online in about 18 months, he said.
At current prices, though, all that may not help the smaller Bitcoin miners that much. Startup Bcause, which hosts some 11,000 mining machines in Viginia Beach, Virginia, for clients. Its customers likely only make a profit, once they’ve covered capital investments, with Bitcoin above $9,000 to $10,000, founder Tom Flake said.
For now, Flake and his customers are betting that Bitcoin’s price will rise. Having only opened its facility in February, Bcause is already overbooked until September and is building another facility, as speculators continue to count on higher prices, he said.
But even Flake expects to see miner consolidation in the next 18 to 24 months.
비트코인 채굴해도 돈 안된다…"채굴원가 8600달러 수준"
대규모 사업자라고 해도 비트코인을 채굴(mining)하는데 들어가는 원가가 이미 코인 하나당 8600달러에 이른 것으로 추산됐다. 8200달러대인 현재 수준으로는 채굴을 해도 들어가는 비용조차 다 감당하기 힘들다는 얘기다.
19일(현지시간) CNBC에 따르면 모건스탠리 찰리 챈 주식담당 애널리스트는 대규모 채굴업자를 기준으로 손익분기점이 되는 비트코인 가격이 8600달러 수준이라고 분석했다. 이는 킬로와트당 0.03달러라는 가장 낮은 전기요금을 기준으로 한 것이다. 더구나 개인들의 경우 채굴원가는 1만200달러에 이르는 것으로 추산됐다.
챈 애널리스트는 “비트코인 채굴장비 수요가 줄어들고 이로 인해 가격도 떨어질 수 밖에 없을 것”이라며 대만 TSMC의 웨이퍼 수요도 덩달아 영향을 받을 것이라고 점쳤다. 실제 이날 TSMC는 올해 매출액 증가율 전망치를 종전 10~15%에서 10%로 하향 조정했다. 그러면서 비트코인 채굴과 관련된 수요 불확실성이 일부 영향을 줬다고 설명했다. 모건스탠리는 TSMC 매출에서 채굴관련 장비가 차지하는 비중이 10%에 이르는 것으로 보고 있다.
