The United States (US) may have very little income exposure to China, but they have fears along with improving the condition of the world's second largest economy.
Because the deteriorating economy in China will delay the Federal Reserve (the Fed) from raising US interest rates (Fed rate). That would be a bad thing for banks because the sector has been waiting for a rate hike to boost mortgage and loan income.
"Significant (economic growth) in China could push the Fed to delay raising interest rates, which leads to a negative revision to next year's net profit estimate," said Bank of America research analyst Erika Najarian and Ebrahim Poonawala in a recent research report , as quoted from USA Today, Friday (08/14/2015).
Najarian and Poonawala estimate that the bank's net profit per share will shrink by 10-15 percent if the Fed postpones raising the benchmark rate until the end of 2016. The increase in interest rates becomes the biggest positive catalyst for bank shares.
"Delaying interest rate increases will change the bullish outlook for this sector," they said in the report.
While banking analyst at S & P Capital IQ Erik Oja said, all US banks are affected by interest rate policies. Nevertheless, according to him, the impact of the delay on banking profits is not too large. However, Citigroup which has direct exposure to China will be directly exposed to 1.2%, followed by JPMorgan Chase only 0.7%.
This week, China weakened its currency in an effort to increase its exports which plummeted last July. The central bank's move to devalue the yuan has sparked fears that China's economic slowdown will be worse than expected. This could encourage the Fed to be more careful in raising interest rates
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