“The turnover is dead, practically nothing was being traded,” said Konstantin Artemov, portfolio manager, Raiffeisen Capital. “The stock of the previous weeks bounced back two weeks, since the topic of the new sanctions was gone until the end of the year. Next Thursday, there will be no bidding in the US because of Thanksgiving Day, Friday is a shortened day, there is no special reporting this week, so there’s nothing to wait for, ”explains the head of the dealing department at Lanta Bank, Roman Yermakov. “In the absence of news, our market is looking for at least some lighthouses, and as a result, today the index just went for futures for the S & P 500 index, but there, as already mentioned, there are few changes.”The ruble exchange rate also went to the side. Despite the tax period and the already mentioned technical respite regarding the new sanctions, there are no tangible changes and since Thursday evening the course has not gone too far beyond the limits of 65.75-66 rubles. for a dollar. The market is so calm that, for example, in today's review of Alfa-Bank under the name “Money markets and currencies” the ruble is not mentioned at all.
“The activity of external participants is low, so that the fluctuations in the exchange rate could have been influenced more by oil, the prices of which moved by almost 2%,” continues Konstantin Artyomov. - The ruble is now unresponsive to external risks, the sanctions have been removed and are not yet being exaggerated. The only factor is oil. Maybe not a direct correlation, lateness, low sensitivity. But if oil goes in December to, say, $ 60 per barrel, then we will feel it on the ruble. And external risks have not gone anywhere - there remains the theme of the US-Chinese trade war, and Italy’s budget problems. These factors will affect the market as a whole and the ruble, as a risky currency, in particular. ”So, despite the current relatively calm picture, it is unlikely that investors should expect further strengthening of the ruble in the near future. “The ruble strengthened on deferred sanctions and the tax period, plus we now see that the Ministry of Finance buys currency not on the open market, but from the Central Bank’s own reserves, these are purely internal transactions,” says Roman Yermakov. “But in December, the Russian market is expected to receive rather serious payments on international debts, plus a seasonal factor: the growth of imports and the population’s demand for currency. So the package to strengthen the ruble is not visible. In addition, next month there will be the last meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank this year, and comments are interesting not only on the key rate, but also on the resumption of currency purchases. Previously, the regulator has already said that it will compensate for what it has not bought before. We know that the Central Bank flexibly focuses on the market, but the fact that it will try to compensate for the non-purchased is a fact. So even with a certain increase in the price of oil at the beginning of next year, it is not worth relying on a significant strengthening of the ruble. ”
