ASEAN demographics to drive changing consumer habits (WEF & Bain)
- The World Economic Forum/Bain report Future of consumption - ASEAN highlights that over the next decade the countries of ASEAN will together equate to the world’s fourth largest economy & the third largest population group.
- The growth already being seen will mean that consumer spending will double, as GDP growth begins to rebound to c. 5% pa in 2021. Estimates are that by 2030 70% of the ASEAN population will be middle class.
- One big regional trend is increasing digitalisation. Across the region COVID accelerated the shift, with total mobile streaming up 60% from mid Jan to early April. It is expected that this trend will continue, with e-commerce growing to hit 13% of retail sales by 2030, similar to the US now.
Analysis and Comments
- At a time when China seems to be the focus of so much attention economically, it is important to remember that Asia is not just China.
- The ASEAN countries (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos & Indonesia) have a combined population of 622m, so larger than the European Union and getting close to twice the population of the US.
- The population is young, with over half below 30, compared with 39% across Asia more widely and 34% in Europe.
- The WEF/Bain study highlighted the importance of local brands in many ASEAN countries, with for instance 80% of Indonesians preferred local food brands. More widely, Korean, Chinese & Japanese brands are capturing significant market share – across categories such as beauty, fashion & smartphones.
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