Watched the video. Well timed and to the point.
I stopped worrying about inflation in March when oil prices peaked (M2 money growth peaked a year before that). I figured everything else would naturally follow.
He is right about the enormous weight of shelter (33%) in the CPI. Even more disturbing, it's a lagging survey, they should at least track live rent prices instead of that owners equivalent nonsense at this point.
I used to follow a price index called the billion prices project, it was a more real time version of the CPI. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to exist anymore. I wonder what that index would be telling us today.
Unfortunately, most of the other CPI alternatives are doom & gloom porn that simply show a higher number by design. But if we look at actual commodity prices throughout this year, we know that's not the case. The DXY is up and commodities are down across the board.
With that said, I think the Fed is focusing primarily on the labor market right now. They explicitly want to soften it in two ways:
(1) the ratio of job openings to applications needs to go back down to 1-1 (currently around 2-1 in favor of openings)
(2) the unemployment rate needs to start going up
