"...Putin, with autonomous control..."
While I appreciate the extensive research and thought you have put into this perspective, and have addressed some of the forces (Russian oligarchs) that do constrain Putin's autonomy, I do not see that you have addressed another group that constrains Putin's autonomy.
He has long been an alumnus of the WEF's Young Global Leaders program, and amongst others that also represent the WEF's goals, spelled out in founder Klaus Schwab's books and public statements, such as Emmanuel Macron, Bill Gates, Sanna Marin, Jacinda Ardern, Scott Morrison, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Angela Merkel, Tony Blair, Anthony Fauci, Albert Bourla, and ~1300 other politicians and powerful business leaders, are said by Schwab to have penetrated the cabinets of national governments to do so, which Schwab has said is to enable everyone to own nothing and be happy.
I strongly suggest considering that global network of economic interests demonstrably coordinating national policies to subject the international system to the interests of the WEF, apparently the global conquest and rule of a New World Order.
I submit that not addressing the WEF's interests in your analysis despite that implications and evidence of coordination of policies across ideological and national borders leaves reality outside of your considerations. Whatever Putin is doing is unlikely to be understood without placing him in the context of the WEF and it's cohort of Ministers, Presidents, cabinet members, and CEOs that are working under Klaus Schwab's influence to implement the NWO.
The Rair Foundation has provided some discussion of the WEF's YGL program, and video of Schwab saying that his organization is 'penetrating' cabinets is available online. I hope you add such influences and considerations to your recommendations going forward, as I am sure that you will have valuable insight after doing so.
Thanks!
RE: The Ugly Path to Avoid a War in Ukraine