I agree about supply disruption (I must stress the agricultural disruption here. I may miss the new iPhone, but Imma die without wheat), and tyranny.

However, you miss the 'confirmed' thing. What is the confirmation process? How many times is that process undertaken? In South Korea and Singapore, that testing is done every contact with an infected. Those numbers of cases are real, because they undertook to do the confirming.

Italy, China, UK, US, not. 'Confirmed' cases is a bullshit number in those jurisdictions, because they're not undertaking testing as needed. China never had the ability to do so, and their tests produce false negatives as many as 7 of 8 tests. 'Confirmed' cases is a dramatic under reporting.

As to CFR, remember it takes weeks to die from SARS2. It takes longer to recover, but I don't believe China about recovered yet. We'll see what's really going on in China ~midsummer, because if they're releasing infectious patients, they won't be able to hide it after ~2 cycles of spread.

One of the big problems with this pathogen is the asymptomatic spread that can happen for literally months, as long as 42 days prior to symptoms, and an unknown amount of time after recovery. Because of that lag we have no idea in real time regarding the spread without accurate tests, and there are no accurate tests I know of, and AFAIK the US isn't testing much.

That really sucks.

tl;dr Using confirmed case numbers is absolutely going to result in grossly lower numbers than reality.