I've spent some time today analysing dates, events and moon phases in the calendar to see if there is any correlation that is worthy of predictive analysis. Have a look at the major turn dates below and I think you will agree that the correlation with moon phases and end of month time periods is interesting.
Long term silver correlation:
Chart annotations
- 28-Oct-2008 - New up trend starts - New moon – Thursday.
- 02-Dec-2009 – Cycle high – Full moon – Wednesday.
- 24-Aug-2010 – New up trend starts – Full moon – Tuesday.
- 04-Jan-2011 – Cycle high – New moon – Tuesday (post bank holiday).
- 26-Jan-2011 – New up trend starts – Half moon – Wednesday.
- 25-Apr-2011 – Intra-day all time high at 49.83 – Half moon – Easter Monday.
- 05-Sep-2011 – New major down trend starts – Monday (half mood day before on Sunday).
- 26-Sep-2011 – Cycle low – Monday (new minor uptrend starts Tuesday – New moon).
- 31-Oct-2011 – New down trend starts – Monday Halloween (no notable moon phase)
- 29-Dec-2011 – New minor up trend starts – Last couple of trading days of the year.
- 29-Feb-2012 – New major down trend starts (Last day of the month, next day is a Half moon).
- 28-Jun-2012 – Cycle low – Thursday (Half moon day before, new uptrend starts on Friday).
- 01-Oct-2012 – Cycle high before major down trend – Monday (Full moon on Sunday day before).
- 10-Apr-2013 – Major 4 day $5.50 fall starts – Wednesday – New moon.
- 28-Aug-2013 – New down turn starts – Wednesday – Half moon.
- 31-Dec-2013 – Intraday cycle low – Tuesday (New moon 1st Jan).
- 11-Jul-2014 – Cycle top before major fall – Friday (Full moon Sat 12th).
- 01-Dec-2014 – New uptrend starts - Monday (following half moon on Sat 29th Nov).
- 14-Dec-2015 – Cycle low (possibly bear market low) – Monday following new moon Friday.
- 04-Jul-2016 – Cycle high – Monday – New moon
- 07-Jul-2017 – Major intraday $1.50 fall – Friday – Full moon follows on Sun 9th.
- 11-Dec-2017 – Cycle low – Monday (following half moon on Sunday)
- 24-Jan-2018 – Cycle high – Wednesday – Half moon.
- This weekend – Long Easter weekend 30-Mar to 2-Apr. Full Moon on Saturday. Expect big moves when the market opens on Tuesday as a trend change is almost certainly in the making.
Correlations
- Most turn dates tend to be at beginning or end of the month, often on the last trading day.
- Many turn dates occur on half, full or new moon dates.
- There were more cycle turns correlating to half, full and new moons, but I couldn't fit them all in.
What can we learn?
Look out for major trend changes occurring at the end of the month, particularly on days or on either side of weekends where there are full, half or new moons.
Can you spot any additional correlations? I couldn't see if any particular moon phase correlated to a move in a particular direction.
I find this very interesting in light of the up and coming weekend and the downward movement in silver over the past couple of weeks. The trend has been down and silver has been consolidating for a number of months. The following are all converging this weekend which suggests to me that a major trend change (up) is imminent on Tuesday:
- Long Easter weekend
- End of the month
- End of the first quarter
- Full moon on Saturday 31st (last day of the month and quarter)
silver near term:
I am therefore expecting quite a significant fall tomorrow (Thursday) which might even take silver as low as $16 intraday (and gold down to $1300), but then marking out a long term low and initiating the next phase of the major bull market on Tuesday as western markets reopen.
See also my post on golds completing flag pattern which supports the above argument:
https://steemit.com/gold/@unclehermit/gold-the-perfect-bullish-flag-formation-completing
For disclosure, I'm not a professional advisor and this is not investment advice, merely my own observations of the market and indexes, so do your own research.