RE: RE: Amazon , Uber The Stock Market
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RE: Amazon , Uber The Stock Market

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I am on the fence on Uber. I agree they look undervalued. If you do a DCF on UBER they appear to be undervalued.

I am not that concerned about the autonomous vehicles thing yet. Lot's of capital has gone into developing autonomous vehicles and it seems to have a lot of issues to do this day. Also it would be a very capital intensive venture for a company to buy a fleet of vehicles that do autonomous driving. I just doubt that will happen anytime "soon."

My main concerns with UBER are:

  • UBER still needs to grow sales while already controlling 75% of the market share in the US. (It is very feasible that they will be viewed as a monopoly at some point in the future; this would work to Lyft's advantage).
  • UBER needs to grow EBITDA margin. The most straight forward way for them to grow EBITDA margin is to increase their take rate. I just don't think increasing their take rate would be well received.
  • UBER has been in a constant battle to not have their drivers considered employees in the US. If UBER drivers are considered employees in the US at some point in the future, it would redefine their business model in a significant way.

One reason I would be inclined to invest in UBER is they have a huge network of drivers. They can leverage that in a lot of creative ways. Just as an example, they could expand Uber Freight. The only problem is Uber Freight is not historically profitable and, in general, freight is a tough business.

@tradfi-curator: I am on the fence | Ecency