I know this post is going to upset just about everyone who reads it, but it's my personal opinion and I hope I'm proved wrong in time. I can definitely see a future for crypto, and I love the idea of decentralised currency but the medium term outlook isn't good for me.
As a forewarning, I am writing this from a position of total ignorance. I don't trade crypto, I know virtually nothing about it, maybe more than the average person because of my job, but that's about it. It's an important point and critical to the future of crypto, which I'll outline below. Apologies if I butchered any of the terms, definitions etc.
No mainstream adoption
You can draw as many colourful lines on charts as you like, but if no money is flowing into the market then the value is never going to increase. Everyone is always bullish all the time on their chosen currency, so the slightest bad news causes wild fluctuations. The only way to increase the market capital and add real value is to get the normies on board. I just don't see that happening any time soon.
Crypto is always associated with criminal activities by the mainstream media.
When was the last time you read a news article about Bitcoin that also didn't mention pedos, terrorism, the dark web, money laundering or drugs ? The media loves to talk down crypto at every opportunity because it's salacious and sells copy. You know exactly what I mean, a typical copy would be "blah blah something Bitcoin, the virtual currency often used by criminals on the dark web for etc etc". Normies associate crypto currencies with crime. Even the word 'crypto' has a hint of spies and secrets and something illicit. You and I know what it means, most normies don't.
Future Government intervention.
What happens if at some point in the future your government decides to make non-fiat currencies illegal ? We've already seen government intervention threatened in South Korea, which although won't be an outright ban it will still have a major impact. What if your government decides that crypto is getting too powerful or out of their control and classes it as money laundering ? Would you be willing to go to prison for 20 years just for buying a cup of coffee with crypto ?
Crypto value is based on smoke and mirrors.
Crypto has no intrinsic value other than what people give it at any given moment. That fact alone makes it unsustainable for use as a fiat currency. Who in their right mind would put all their savings into a vehicle that could lose half it's value in a weeks time ? The huge volatility driven entirely by speculation leads to periods of hyper inflation and defaltion making it useless as a day to day currency.
Ease of access day to day.
Darlene finishes her shift at the titty bar, on the way home she stops at the grocery store and takes a $50 bill from her g-string to buy some smokes and a six pack. She hands over the note and takes the goods, plus some small change that she can use at a later date to buy scratchcards. Nice, simple easy transaction. How about with crypto ? Unless there's mainstream adoption by banks and some means of instant conversion to fiat then it's not going to happen. Sure, you can have your pack of smokes, if you just type in your 34 random character digit into this terminal, and then come back in a weeks time when the transaction is cleared, and by then the value has changed so much you can't afford to buy the smokes, what with the transaction charges on top....
The Doomsday scenario
Ok so I know this one is way out there, but what happens to the currency during a catastrophic power outage ? A huge solar flare knocks out the power system for a year, what happens to your entirely virtual money then ? I know it would also be devastating for fiat currency, but it would survive. The physical money system has been around for thousands of years and still works. Sure, you may have to walk to the bank and withdraw your money over the counter with everything recorded with paper and pencil, but it's worked for a very long time and will continue to work in the future, electricity or not. Shopkeepers will still accept paper notes on exchange for goods, or how else are they going to buy goods and services for themselves ?
A future of grey mush.
I just did a quick search, there are over 1400 digital currencies as of writing and growing. Every single dime invested in one of those currencies is a dime not invested in yours. The life of a crypto seems to be pretty predictable. Start a new currency, price spikes quickly on speculation, the inventor sells out and walks away with a huge profit, the currency slides quickly into obscurity. All the charts seem to show the same pattern. It reminds me of the dotcom bubble, a small handful of people made out like bandits, an awful lot of people lost everything, and virtually none of those companies are still around today. I think crypto is the new tech bubble, and may have already passed its peak.
As more and more people jump on the bandwagon and invent new cryptos, the available money pool is spread thinner and thinner. This has an averaging affect on all currencies and they all lose value over time. It'll be like the heat death of the universe where everything that could have happened has happened, and there's no energy left to do anything, just an endless sea of worthless decreasing currencies that have no value or use.
It's too nerdy.
I was reading an article the other day, trying to learn a bit more about crypto and it made my head hurt. The buzzwords and terminology are mind boggling, it's an entirely new language. I'm pretty tech savvy and very financially aware, and I couldn't understand half the information. How is the average general public supposed to make sense of it then ? If you want crypto to survive, then it needs mainstream adoption, and dumbed down to a level that is easily understandable by everyone.
Parity with normalicy
In order to be more 'useful', crypto needs to have some kind of parity with fiat currencies. I don't know how you'd achieve it, maybe some sort of split or re-evalutaion every so often. Take Bitcoin for example, what is a useful amount ? I want to buy a $10 six pack, which at today's rate is something like 0.00100627 BTC. What kind of useless value is that ? Ask anyone in the world what goods they could buy for $10 and they would be able to answer quite accurately. I want to buy something priced at 0.05 BTC, is that good value for money ? or what if it's 0.65789 ETH ? or 0.00172 XRP ? 0.366 LTC ??? If a simple transaction requires the use of online calculators then it's too complicated for every day use.
Conclusion
I know this post has been very negative towards crypto, and I really want it to succeed, I just can't see it happening for a long time yet. I think it will remain a very niche vehicle for the forseeable future, something to play with and maybe make a few bucks here and there on speculation, but nothing real world useful. It needs mainstream adoption to succeed and as stated above, it's too complicated, too nerdy, too cumbersome for day to day transactions, too unstable, and just too different to what regular people are used to.
I predict (hope) in the future that some sort of natural selection occurs, leaving just a handful of alt coins to survive and become mainstream, but I think that's a long way in the future for now.
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Disclaimer : If you blindly act on the advice of strangers from the internet then you're an idiot and probably deserve to lose all your money. There's no fast track to success. Do your own research and make informed decisions based on all available evidence. Critical thinking is the key to everything.