It's that time of year again, the 6N is just around the corner. For Rugby fans, it's like the night before Christmas. This year promises to be more interesting than most, with teams from England, champions over the last 2 years, struggling in the champions cup while French and Irish teams dominating their respective groups, what looks like a rejuvenated Scotland, a Welsh side that you can never count out and a Italian team under Conor O'Shea that can cause anyone problems on their day. So what outcome seems the most likely?
I think if this question was asked after the last 6N the majority would have said that it would most likely be another English victory. But now with English injuries piling up and English teams form in the Champions Cup very suspect it doesn't look so clear-cut anymore, let's have a look at each squad in more detail.
This English is not as infallible as once thought coming off the back of last years 6N where they lost to Ireland after an 18 match winning streak mind you, and an Autumn international performances that didn't quite reach the levels expected from this team. English teams also have been struggling majorly in the Champions cup with only Saracens making it through to the knockout stages.
That is no reason to count them out of contention and personally, I think it is between England and Ireland for the title. This English team is full of world-class talents Maro Itoje while freshly recovered from injury is one of the top 3 locks in the world, Owen Farrell is capable of controlling a match from inside center, and lions Ben Te’o, Mako Vunipola and Anthony Watson are all the best or close to the best in their position. Eddie Jones has also decided to cap 8 new players this time around the most of any team, which shows first the depth in English rugby but also the number of players missing, including Billy Vunipola, Elliot Daly, Kyle Sinclair and Joe Marler. Overall I think this English team is incredibly strong and will either finish first or second, and you get the feeling Eddie Jones would be happy with either as he builds for the 2019 world cup, which will be taking priority in his mind.
They say that in the early 90’s club football overtook international in terms of quality. Meaning that the best club team would outplay the best international team in the world. We haven’t really seen this in Rugby until now. You really do worry for France, and world Rugby in general, to me something is rotten in the top 14, the massive influx of foreign players and the huge sums of money they are being paid ahs really taken away from the national team, and they are the only country where you would say the clubs are stronger than the international team. The FRU know this, but they don’t seem to be able to do anything about it. Firing your head coach right before the start of the six nations, mid-world cup cycle stinks of desperation. I always feared the French and the Stade de France was never somewhere any team wanted to go, but they really don’t hold the same “wow factor” of French teams of old and champagne rugby seems to be a think of the past. That’s not to say this French can’t hurt you, they are all monsters, ever player looks like a number 8 held together with tape and strapping, a game with the French is going to leave teams physically drained. They have also picked quite a youthful squad, but with their talismanic captain Picamoles out for the first 2 games I see them fighting it out for a 4th or 5th place finish.
Unlike France when Irish teams do well in the champions cup it generally bodes well for the Irish team. Following a positive November series, securing victories over South Africa, Fiji and Argentina, while not looking like they got out of 3rd gear, and a Champions Cup campaign which has seen Leinster and Munster progress to home quarterfinals. The November internationals saw some new and exciting talents introduced especially in the backline. Interestingly Ireland only have one Uncapped player in the Squad, Jordan Larmour, but they boast the most players with 10 caps or less 15 in total. There is a nice mix of youth and experience in the squad, and not many injuries to contend with. Where Ireland really lack depth though is in half back positions, while Conor Murray and Jonathan Sexton are two of the very best in the business, you have to worry how this Irish team will do if one of them were to get injured. Ireland also seems to have the best bill of health heading into this six nations, with Sean O'Brien the only major squad member out of action. Other than that I can easily see an Ireland V England Grand Slam decider in Twickenham in St. Patrick's day.
Italian Rugby has actually made some improvements this year, with Benetton Treviso doing relatively well in both the European cup and champions cup and Zebre having a famous victory over Ulster earlier this season. You do feel Conor O’Shea has a structure in place and is building for the future. However, you do feel that as usual this team will be scrapping it out for the wooden spoon again this year and it is very hard to see them getting a victory over anyone, even France or wales at this stage. One thing is for sure the Azzurri will bring a lot of heart and physicality.
Scotland really have gone from strength to strength in the last year, beating Australia and running New Zealand very close, they probably should have probably should have beaten them. Gregor Townsend has created a team that is a match for anyone in the forwards line but where this team really shines is in the backline, with a star-studded cast led by two time player of the six nations Stuart Hogg, Scotland could be real contenders this year and the 3rd round match-up with England is a mouthwatering prospect. While I do think this Scotish team has a genuine chance of the title this year, where they are really going to struggle is in the front row both hookers Ross Ford and Fraser Brown, tight-heads Zander Fagerson and WP Nel, and loose-head trio: Darryl Marfo, Allan Dell and Al Dickinson. This will be very telling when they come up against strong sides such as Ireland, England and France. Overall I am really looking forward to watching this Scottish team play as they are one of the most exciting teams to watch and they will be my second team for the tournament.
Wales really are up against it, an injury list that seems to keep growing with Lions skipper Sam Warburton out for the championship along with Jonathan Davies, Liam Williams and Rhys Webb to name a few. I don't think any team has suffered this many injuries to major players before the six nations, at least not in my memory. I also think some the Welsh have lost some faith in Warren Gatland. All that being said, I still think this side has a massive amount to offer, Gatland is a fantastic coach, drawing the lions test series in New Zealand is no mean feat. And they still have some fantastic players, particularly in the backrow and backline. I think it's between Wales and Scotland for 3rd place but it would not suprise me to see them coming higher, although I don't see Walse getting wins in Ireland Or England
Let me know your thoughts and predictions in the comments below
