This Kramatorsk train station attack bewilders me. Who did it, but most importantly, why? And the missile with Russian text on that didn't explode, was it perhaps an intentional dud?
(Image credits: armyinform.com.ua, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
The Ukrainians claim it was shot by the Russians, and they claim that they can prove it. The Russians claim that it was shot by the Ukrainians, and they claim they can prove it. The missile is of a kind the Russians allegedly retired long ago, but that the Ukrainians are still using (but what about the "independent" nations of Luhansk and Donetsk? Maybe they do possess those missiles?) Furthermore, the Russians claim it's Ukrainian tradition to write messages on the tail of the missiles, Russians never do that (but the slogan is used by Russians who believes Ukrainians are killing Russian-speaking children in the Donbas region). The latter is obviously not a proof of anything, and we've seen Russian space rockets launched with a Z-symbol on the tail. Some "western" media are also speculating that the old missiles that the Russians "aren't using anymore" weren't destroyed, but is actively being used on the battle field now to save costs. Currently the Wikipedia articles bluntly states that it was a Russian attack, but the citations used (BBC and LeMonde) are not conclusive on that.
BBC says that the proofs presented are inconclusive. I do trust BBC to have spent some efforts checking the obvious in the claimed "proofs" from both sides. According to BBC, there exists a fake video with BBC logo that concludes the missile was launched by the Ukrainians - this video has been shown on the Russian state television. It should have been easy to see that the video wasn't made by BBC. It's said that one should never attribute to malice what can be sufficiently explained by stupidity ... but I believe they knew what they were doing, and that they intentionally used that video (maybe even produced it) for drumming up domestic support for the war.
The rocket attack fits neatly into the Russian narrative: the Russian population in the east of Ukraine is suffering from a genocide, and the Azov battalion is deliberately preventing civilians from escaping from the battle zones.
The reason behind the attack could be very simple, it could be some rogue angry missile operators has fired it in furious rage. It could also be that someone had orders to shoot at train stations (as train stations may be useful for receiving weapons and ammunition). Another possibility is that it's a "false flag"-operation with the deliberate purpose of blaming the other side. If done by the Russians, then the dud was intentionally dud, and it also has the purpose of deflecting the attention from the atrocities done in the northern Ukraine. If the attack was done by the Ukrainians, then the dud was an accident, we were not supposed to know what kind of missile was used.
Whomever did it, and whatever the purpose was, this attack is obviously only good for one thing: creating and amplifying negative emotions on both sides. It will make it harder to agree on any peace agreement, and it will make it more likely that further war crimes are happening, on both sides. The attack was horrible and totally unnecessary, but when it comes to the big picture, this attack is not much significant compared to all the suffering in Mariupol and in the former occupied territories around Kiev.
I am worried that we will see only more shit like this. Perhaps the next thing may be an attack on civilians living in proper Russia. Some would probably say "serves them well", but it for sure will only escalate things further ... adding more fuel to the fire.
Post-scriptum: "I told you so". Russia now claims that civilian villages on the Russian side of the border has been attacked by Ukrainians. It has been reported by several trustworthy media outlets, but it was easiest to find on Russia Today (for those who can access it, anyway).
