What is the breakdown of the curation reward after HF20 now in steemit?

View this answer on Musing.io

There are two elements in play:

Reverse auction window and early voting penalties

Under HF19 a reverse auction window operated for the first thirty minutes of any post. During this period an early voting penalty reduced the rewards awarded to the curator. The penalty applied linearly, as outlined in your question:

• 0 minutes: 100% penalty, 0% of curation reward
• 15 minutes: 50% penalty, 50% of curation reward
• 30 minutes: 0% penalty, 100% of curation reward

The penalty was awarded to the author.

Under HF20 the reverse auction window still applies, and is still linear, but over 15 minutes. So we have:

• 0 minutes: 100% penalty, 0% of curation reward
• 5 minutes: 66.6% penalty, 33.3% of curation reward
• 7.5 minutes: 50% penalty, 50% of curation reward
• 10 minutes: 33.3% penalty, 66.6% of curation reward
• 15 minutes: 0% penalty, 100% of curation reward

The penalty is now returned to the reward pool.

However it is misleading to say "27 mins - 90% of (25% curation)".  This is because of the second element in play: 

Non-linear curation rewards

Under the current Steem curation system curators who "find a post" and upvote earlier receive a higher reward than later curators (for the same level of vote). Ignoring the penalties what we would see is early curators receiving over 100% of vote value as their curation reward and the last curators receiving 12.5% of vote value (rather than all curators receiving 25% of their vote value).

So it would be more accurate to say something like:

• 0 minutes: 0% of curation reward => 0% of vote
• 5 minutes: 33.3% of curation reward at 120% of vote value => 40% of vote value
• 7.5 minutes: 50% of curation reward at 100% of vote value => 50% of vote value
• 10 minutes: 66.6% of curation reward at 50% of vote value => 33.3% of vote value
• 15 minutes: 100% of curation reward at 25% of vote value => 25% of vote value
• 100 minutes: 100% of curation reward at 12.5% of vote value 

Overall the percentages of vote value equals 25% (including that part returned to the reward pool).

It is not possible to know the "120% / 100% / 50% / 25% of vote value" factors for any post in advance. They vary according to how people have voted on the post. Equally the best time to vote on any post will vary according to the entire vote history of the post.

You can read more about it here:

https://steemit.com/utopian-io/@miniature-tiger/hardfork20-curation-analysis-1539298668074