How do you decide what the real intrinsic value of a cryptocurrency is?
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It's a good question!
I think that first you have to come to a view on why (or if!) cryptocurrencies have any intrinsic value at all, or whether the whole market is based on pure speculation of unproductive assets.
For me, cryptocurrencies can be considered to have value through:
- Utility: The main source of value in crypto comes from utility, i.e. what use holding the coin provides.
- Revenue streams: Some crypto like Steem, NEO or Binancecoin can provide an income stream that can be valued in a similar way to traditional stocks. Although there is generally the added complication that the income is in crypto so it is a little bit of a circular argument.
There are then other factors that are a consideration on the value, such as scarcity, but these are adjustments rather than determinants of whether there is underlying value.
From the earliest days of Bitcoin there have been many ways that it was considered to have utility, although many of them are no longer valid or have been taken over by other coins:
- As a payment system for activities that you want to remain anonymous.
- As a method to transfer money out of China.
- As a store of value in some countries against falling currency rates and hyperinflation.
- As a potential method to store and trade assets (coloured coins).
- Soon to be a payment system for everyday purchases (lightning network).
On top of this is a whole layer of speculation which has a very substantial impact on the price.
Even with the above considerations it's very hard to put an actual value on the utility and thus on the price. For me, for many crypto the intrinsic value is zero, since there is no utility or nothing that cannot be provided by better coins.
As such I think many traders in crypto are simply speculating, buying low and selling high, or playing trading strategies without consideration for the underlying asset.
But looking at the utility of a coin at least gives you an idea of what kind of value it brings and you can start to make some assumptions about its possible value.
Not financial advice, please do your own research.