Even in modern times, populating a fifth of the world, with people on every corner of the planet, China remains a mysterious place. So mysterious that an industry of "China Experts" still exist in the West.
Sometimes, or most of the time, these "experts" lack expertise. But this one has made a good observation to counter the original bad one: there is no Thucydides Trap.
The Thucydides Trap was formulated by US-American political scientist, Professor Graham T. Allison of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. This political theory is a specific interpretation of Thucydides’ interpretation of the Peloponnesian War. It is an interpretation that emphasises fear of the unknown as the key driving factor for destructive wars. It assumes China is an aspiring world power trying to unseat US-American hegemony.
I have an alternate interpretation of the Peloponnesian War: it was the inevitable clash for hegemony over the unity of the Greek civilization, a predestined conflict by two obvious contenders. I believe China interprets the Peloponnesian War in the same fashion, and because the USA and China have fundamentally nothing to do with each other, this Thucydides Trap does not apply. If anything, it applies to cross-strait relations, where Taiwan is Sparta struggling to survive an ascendant Athenian Mainland China for dominance over the Chinese civilization. But in this scenario, Taiwan has none of Sparta's martial prowess and all its challenges.
Both interpretations are correct. They have different focal points. This is why openness in diplomacy is so important.
I think Americans see a monster lurking around every corner, and this culture of fear is in every part of society, from the everyday news to international affairs. If everything can potentially be a threat, it makes sense to build an overwhelming military and to keep a shotgun in your closet.
I think many states around the world see and know their place in the world and expand or resist based on those world views. Including China. The South China Seas is a local issue that only China and its neighbours could solve, e.g. none of the USA's business. And in case you were wondering, China wasn't the only one building islands and wrecking coral reefs, they just got to the game late, and built faster!
What do you think of Thucydides Trap? Does it apply to US-China relations? Does it apply to any modern bilateral relation?
