This is a question that has enormous implications, especially upon our investing. We are present with huge opportunities yet we see to be mired in the past. Perhaps many who properly forecast future events are able to do so since humans tend not to change. In short, we keep repeating the same mistakes, over and over.
Humans appear to have a need to control. This is a major shortcoming. Looking around the world, we see tensions rising because of conflict over what? Pieces of dirt?
Ultimately, we lived through a number of decades where we were overtly lied to. Remember the Weapons of Mass Destruction claim that kicked off "the war on terror"? How did that work out? Trillions of dollars lost, millions of lives affected, and over what; a lie?
Today, we are advancing technologically but the question is whether humanity is actually moving forward? We have more devices, faster ways to communicate, and, of course, easier ways to kill larger numbers of people.
Space offers an enormous opportunity and what do we do? Start a "Space Force" to prevent other countries (people from other pieces of dirt) from gaining an upper hand.
How is all of this going to turn out?
Artificial Intelligence
People seem to fear AI. The question is why? Perhaps it is because we are afraid of something that is actually smart, a trait humanity appears to lack. For all our bravado, we see the same sort of tyranny that plagued humanity for centuries. Is there really any difference between Putin, Biden, and some of the tyrannical monarchies from hundreds of years ago? Sure, they no longer lop people's heads of in the square. Instead, they send a drone to zap a number of targets (people).
Ben Goertzel, the founder of SingularityNet, claims the world is desperate for decentralized AI. In the hands of our existing "leaders", the use cases are to track people, sell them stuff, or kill them more efficiently. As for the latter, the same could be said for our biological advancement.
Either way, AI is gaining steam. Even if we do not gain full AGI, there is no doubt our systems are getting more powerful and robust. Software is improving at an astronomical pace. The capabilities of AI are hard to target in terms of pace but some have it doubling every 90 days. That means, each year, we are seeing a 16x in the capabilities.
Regardless of how accurate that is, we can conclude that it is moving forward at a tremendous pace. Like most anything with technology, this is a double-edge sword. On one hand it can help us usher in a new era of problem solving. Sadly, if we follow the path we are on, we will only get more targeted advertising, AI killing machines, and surveillance all over the planet.
Leave it to humans to turn something with enormous potential into something that could end up catastrophic.
Perhaps we ought to fear some of the humans on the planet more than the AI.
Decentralization
The power structures we see are based upon a hierarchy. It was used for most of humanity, at least in the modern world. This is what allows the select few to control the masses. If it was just a numbers game, those at the top would not stand a chance. However, they constructed things where this is not the problem. Make an example out of a few and the rest will fall in line. Couple this with government propaganda through the media and you have a large group of people who cannot think.
Of course, for those in cryptocurrency, the option of decentralization is really enticing. Here is where we see a problem. How much are we dealing with that is truly decentralized? Certainly, there are efficiency reasons to not start with everything spread out. Nevertheless, it is likely that a lot of what we see is not going to change. The world of cryptocurrency is still driven by the same greed that permeates the rest of our financial system.
Fortunately, this is not everyone. There are many involved in the process looking to develop open source software that can aid in the push forward. The digital realm offers us a completely new arena to test things out. Here we can venture into novel models of governance, interaction, and incentivization. That is something that humanity was lacking.
We know how a horizontal power structure instantly changes the entire situation. When things are spreading in that direction, control is being lost. The few lose the ability to oversee the many.
This is a trend that is not only taking place in cryptocurrency but many industries. For example, the idea of renewable energy such as solar is looking to take the power away from the centralized utility providers. Of course, in many regions, they are putting up a fight. This is where the new model is a threat to the old. In this world, that means money is at risk.
Distributed Growth
Many want to attack growth. This is something that is a luxury in the developed countries. However, if we step far enough back, we can see that growth is required if we want to lift the standard of living amount the 2 billion who are living in total poverty.
Naturally, this also means that we need to get this distributed to the masses. The way the system works now, a select few advance while the rest languish.
Decentralization of many things will help. However, for this to truly take place, a new mode of thinking is required. Massive technological advancement in the hands of the same robber barons will not work out well. Here is where we can see the progress in a distributed way really helping out.
Banks are unwilling to lend. This is tightening economic conditions which always serves to crush the average individual. Here is where cryptocurrency can step in and really make a difference. We do not apply the same standards as the established system.
Completely altering our financial system is a fundamental step that is required. Unfortunately, what is in place is not going to favor the masses. This is where we have to look for opportunities to expand our wealth to counter balance what is already out there. At the same time, we have to ensure we are constructing inclusive systems where anyone with an Internet connection can participate.
There is no reason, with all the technological advancements we are potentially looking, why we cannot generate enough growth to provide for all on this planet. However, there are entities that will seek to stifle the progress unless they can profit (and control) it.
Here is where we see zero evolution of humanity over the last few hundred years.
That said, humanity does excel and move ahead over time in certain areas. The only question is the pace at which this is accomplished. Each generation looks at things a bit different from the one before. Here is where new ideas, innovations, and ways of interacting arise. As the older generations move on, the younger ones take their place at the table.
Will they be different from what went before? In some ways, definitely. It is in some of the other areas that we have to wonder what things will look like.
Upward Progression
Fortunately, humanity progresses forward, overall. We do this in spite of ourselves. For all the ways we shoot ourselves in the foot, it is amazing how we keep progressing.
This cause is assisted by those who are seeking to create massive change. When millions of people are keeping their eye on the ball, we can have enormous impact. Cryptocurrency is one of the technologies that appear to be primed to aid in this effort.
All of our new technologies, however, are of little use if we keep behaving in the same manner. The rent seekers are quickly becoming a problem, on a scale never seen before. It is time to remove them from the equation. Here is where technology can be a great benefit.
While we do not know the exact destination, we can foresee the general path humanity is going to take. For those who know how to invest in this, we can see outsized returns. The entire world is changing on a regular basis (for many reasons). This means that agility is required.
It is up to each of us to do our part. This is not something that is going to come from the top-down. If it does, then we changed nothing.
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