Often, it is hard to imagine novel ideas. When something comes along that is so radical it can completely upend how we operate, it takes a while to adjust. This is compounded when things are in the idea stage.
That is the point we find ourselves considering where we are at with technology. Most people think in terms of scarcity. This is natural since our entire economic framework is built based upon that. However, we are rapidly moving to a world of abundance.
The leader in this is the digital world. We can see how many facets of life are now effectively "unlimited".
Let us take a look at music. There was a time, in my life, where people bought music on discs. There was obviously a limit to what an individual could purchase as well as society. The latter was due to the ability of the companies to stamp out more copies. If demand exceeded it, scarcity kicked in. Of course, on the individual level, personal resources where the hindrance. Teen agers tended to like more music than they could afford.
Compare that to now. Just on YouTube alone, there are more songs than we could listen to in our lifetimes. Then when we add in Spotify and Pandora, we see an abundance of music, all for free (or near free).
Here is an entire sector that is abundant.
What happens when this translates across the entire economy?
Here is where people run into issues mentally. It is something that is hard to fathom. But keep in mind, we are dealing with a process that is no different than what took place in music.
Simply put, we took something physical and made it invisible. I call this moving from atoms to bits. We altered the product along with the distribution channels to create an environment where we are only limited by bandwidth and storage capacity.
Imagine what happens if we spread this concept throughout the economy. How do we start moving toward this end?
Robotics plays a big part in this.
It is at this point where we see labor starting to be removed from the equation. This not only reduces cost but also decreases the caps that people usually put in place. After all, humans can only work so long, at such a pace, before they need to rest. Robots only require power and periodic maintenance.
One of the reasons why the Tesla Bot is so exciting is due to the fact it introduces idea to the mainstream. If they can succeed at developing something that can be mass produced, and has many of the abilities of humans, even if only in certain fields, we can see economic activity increase substantially. It is akin to the volume on the stock market today when most trading is done by computers as compared to the days when humans did it. Guess which has exponentially higher volumes.
We can do this in the realm of production. Perhaps, by the 2030s, we will see this starting to become a reality.
Of course, robots will be limited if their is the cap on the energy. To truly achieve this end, we need to see renewable, sustainable, and free energy. The cost component of labor being eliminated is only effective if it is not replaced with a giant electric bill.
The debate about which form of renewable energy should be used is outside the scope of this article. Whatever the format, we need to have massive quantities to power the "machines of production".
Here is where the unlimited factor comes in. There might be a time when hundreds of billions of devices need to be powered. When we look at the number of computers (including phones) we use, there are easily tens of billions in use. Many are estimating the number of connected devices totaling more than 50 billion.
We could see this number grow to over 200 billion. That might be a number that is also unfathomable to most people. However, the idea of 50 billion devices connected was absurd 25 years ago. Yet, here we are.
Once we have a flow of sustainable, unlimited energy, then we can power as many devices for as long as we need. This radically increases economic output by many orders of magnitude.
Think of it this way:
We have a global economy with a GDP of roughly $95 trillion. Imagine what things will look like if that number is $1 quadrillion. Seems far-fetched at this point but if these variables are in place, it is on the table.
The idea is that material abundance is within our reach. It might take another 20 or 30 years to get there but we are rapidly moving towards it. Of course, some of the metrics such as GDP might well be on their way to being obsolete (it probably already is). Nevertheless, the basic premise is what is important.
The standard of living of the entire planet is about to skyrocket. The last 30 years saw tremendous progress in areas such as child mortality rates and human poverty levels. However, what took place over that time is a drop in the bucket compared to what can occur in the next half century. Technology is plugging along at a fantastic pace. If Elon, or whomever, brings out the humanoid robot, we could see things radically shifting.
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