This is a fast moving story.
To give a quick overview, the Hollywood writers went on strike, at least in part, over dispute regarding artificial intelligence. It seems they are concerned about movie studios turning to this technology.
At the same time, there was also the desire to be paid on work done, especially as it pertained to streaming.
Last week, an agreement was reached. As to who got the better end of the deal, that depends upon who you listen to. However, it is universally agreed that most writers are going to end up on the short end of the stick.
Some will make out like bandits but the majority will likely end up out of a job.
So why would the union agree to such a deal?
The reality is there was no choice. In this article we will discuss exactly what is happening in this arena.
Actors Are Going To Be Next
The actors union is still on strike.
They went out much later than the writers but they are facing a similar problem. We are going to see the rest of the decade spent replacing human actors. This is something that will accelerate, driven by the technological advancements.
If this seems far-fetched, let us look at this preview.
This is a preview for an AI generated film. It was not done by any major movie studio. Instead, it was done by someone who isn't known in the film industry.
And here is the crux of the matter.
Whether it is the writers or actors, they simply will not be needed. Software is already able to write scripts. As we can see, generative AI is already to the point where quality video can be created. This is where it stands in 2023.
Where do you think this will be in 2025?
The reality is that we are likely to see the ability for anyone with some decent programming skills able to produce feature length content within a few years. This is not Sci-Fi, far out stuff. It is just around the corner.
AI Taking Over
The ChatGPT moment changed humanity. We are going to look back on that moment as the start of a new direction.
Since that time, we now have an arms race between every major technology company there is. While it was likely happening in the background, it is now front and center.
This past week, Amazon announced it was spending $4 billion for Claude. Even more importantly, we are seeing generative AI starting to be included in all our favorite platforms. Did you notice what Bing did. Not only did they add it to search, but there is chat along with generative AI within the image creator.
All of this is advancing ahead at a rapid pace.
Demand is off the charts. With what is taking place, this is not the problem. Suddenly, there is a supply issue with NVIDIA chips being backordered. Manufacturers are going to have to step up and get a lot more product out. This is the bottleneck.
It is easy to get lost in what is taking place, especially when it comes to the pace of things. The above video, however, should be a slap in the face in terms of the progress. We are looking at incredible abilities with nothing more than a PC (or even laptop).
Does This Mean Jobs Are Done?
Not at the moment.
It will take some time for all of this to filter out. One film does not make an entire industry. If you will, consider this a proof-of-concept.
What it does show is how much things are changing and the potential we are looking at. How will things look when the GPU capabilities are triple or quadruple what they are today? What happens when the AI stack and architecture is such that another doubling of processing power is squeezed out?
The reality is that much of the job destruction will occur without most noticing. After all, unless we follow an industry, do we pay attention. What is happening in the ATM repair industry? Are jobs plentiful? The majority of us have no clue.
Perhaps we will start to hear of writers who were laid off. I think what might be more interesting to watch is how the movie studios fare. They no longer have a monopoly on content creation. If anyone can produce a feature length film, what is the point of Hollywood studios?
This is where things can really get disrupted. The reign of Hollywood might be over. We could get record breaking films produced in other sections of the United States, or even countries such as Japan or China.
In other words, do not underestimate the potential development of this technology. By 2028, we have no idea where it will be.
Of course, this is par for the course with technology. The early mobile phone systems were pretty crappy. They were also expensive. Yet, today, much of the world using a smartphone. It seems things changed a great deal in the past 40 years since cellular technology started to appear in the U.S.
It is gong to be the same here. Sadly, for those who are employed in jobs that are in the line of sight for this technology, it is game over. It will not take decades for this to become a problem.
The writers might have "won" in the dispute with the studios but it will be short-lived.