With the conflict between Texas and the Biden Administration, we could be moving towards an escalation. Without getting into the politics, there is one major question we need to ask:
After having Brexit, rumblings of Italexit, there is talk of Texit.
While we are a long way from this decision, it is worthy to take a look at what Texas has going for it if the move was decided to be undertaken.
Texas has a lot going for it. Actually, when it comes to a discussion like this, it is the one state in position to pull it off.
The economy is the second largest in the U.S., trailing only California. With a GDP of around $2.5 trillion, the state would place 8th in the world if it was a standalone country. This puts it ahead of Mexico, Spain, Russia, and Australia.
In other words, the state has a lot of economic might. Since the U.S. economy is around $27 trillion, this is a sizeable chunk.
Texas also has the population. They are number 2, once again only trailing California. Some are projecting the former will pass the latter by 2045. Source
The state military is one of the largest in the country, with 115,000 troops. It also have 15 US military bases among the 24 federal installations. Source
Obviously, if there was a succession, we would see those become property of the new nation.
This is a spin on the old James Carville line.
When we look at the production of US oil, according to the EIA, this is what we come up with:
Texas does more than the rest of the chart combined. This would be a serious issue for the rest of the United States if Texas suddenly stopped shipping. Energy independence immediately goes out the window.
Speaking of cutting off, Texas ports process more cargo than any other state in the nation, including California. This means that in addition to have the most airports, cargo would be hindered if this pathway was eliminated.
Another advantage Texas has it the electricity network is not part of the national grid. Every other state depends upon the major hubs that are set up. With Texas, their electricity transmission does not cross state lines, hence no federal authority.
Texas is in a unique position. It has a degree of independence due to it infrastructure and economic climate. Houston is a thriving city because it is a hotbed for many different industries including finance, energy, and aerospace. It is also a cargo center for ship, rail, and trucking.
Centralization is always resisted. Over the course of this decade, we are seeing confidence in government wane. This is mostly at the national level although it is likely going to happen with most governments. That said, when centralized entities start to exert their will, they are met with resistance.
The legalities of whether Texas could secede would be hotly debated. Of course, the idea of secession is that you are not asking permission from the one you are trying to leave. There would be conflict yet Texas would come to the table with a fairly strong hand.
California and Texas, when it comes to population and GDP are both massive. If California was its own country, it would have the 5th largest economy, not far behind Germany. These are two enormous economic centers which exert a great deal of influence.
With Texas, the size, natural resources, and location make a very powerful entity.
Not that it will come to it, but from an infrastructure and economic standpoint, Texas could stand on its own. In fact, it would be one of the larger economies in the world.
