The global economy was flat for most of the last few years. China still was experiencing some tremendous growth although not like they did a decade ago. The United States has held up fairly well. Japan and Western Europe were basically in the toilet.
How quickly things can change.
While Japan and Western Europe are still a mess, it looks like the two largest economies are headed for a setback.
China might register flat growth for this year, the first in a very long time. The coronavirus is doing a number on the leading manufacturer with numerous areas coming to a complete standstill.
Now, we are seeing economists come out with a negative picture of the United States economy.
Ed Hyman, a widely followed economist on Wall Street, said the coronavirus outbreak could end up causing a recession in the U.S. and slashed his U.S. GDP forecast to zero growth in the second and third quarters of this year
“More cases are showing up in the U.S. and seem likely to be just the start,” the Evercore ISI Chairman said in his note titled, “U.S. Virus ‘Recession’” on Sunday. “Scope, severity, and duration are uncertain. How much it changes behavior in the U.S. is uncertain.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/top-economist-ed-hyman-sees-zero-us-growth-next-two-quarters.html
The United States economy was not raging but it did show some solid numbers. For 2019, it registered 2.3% growth for the year and 2.1% for the 4th quarter.
This is all going away accoridng to Hyman.
With the effect of supply chains still unknown, even if demand holds up, there is the problem with not having product to deliver. This makes the demand equation fairly moot.
Of course, everything at this point is speculation. There is no way to tell how widespread this virus will become and its impact from the humanity perspective, let alone what the economic fallout will be.
What is known is that the sentiment is quickly turning. The press is pretty much all negative meaning we are not going to see much positive news for a while. The next quarter will likely see the first two month suffering through worse than expected earnings.
The global economy is heavily at risk.
If you found this article informative, please give an upvote and resteem.
Posted via Steemleo
