Critini Analyst: HBM Bringing Structural Change to DRAM Market, AI Memory Supercycle Emerging

June 14 – Jukan, an analyst at Critini Research, says HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is sparking a structural shift in the DRAM market’s long-term trajectory. From roughly 1957 to 2020, the cost per gigabit of DRAM dropped by an order of magnitude roughly every five years. But surging demand for HBM, stoked by the AI boom, has upended that entire pattern. Manufacturers are diverting vast amounts of capacity to HBM—a more complex, silicon footprint-intensive technology—causing a tight supply of mainstream DRAM and a sharp price reversal. Data indicates that DRAM’s long-term price had fallen steadily on a logarithmic scale, but is projected to climb higher post-2023–2024, reflecting the rise of an AI-driven memory supercycle.