Fed Speak: U.S. Economy May Have Achieved Soft Landing, But No One Is Eager to Declare Victory

February 15th, in his "Fed Watcher" column, Nick Timiraos noted that key U.S. economic indicators are aligning positively: inflation is easing, the labor market remains strong, and growth is steady. This isn’t a final call, but it’s the closest the U.S. economy has ever come to a soft landing—restraining inflation without triggering a recession. Four years ago, most economists dismissed this as impossible; today, the scenario of inflation falling back to the Fed’s 2% target without a recession is plausible again. **Yet while the economy doesn’t need an oxygen mask, it’s still too soon to unbuckle the seatbelt. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—year-over-year core PCE—is currently near 3%.