With technology, especially those that are able to generate a great deal of hype, it seems like we are always years away.
The joke with nuclear fusion is that we are always a decade away. Of course, this was the saying for the past 60 years.
Autonomous vehicles are something that captured the imagination of the general public. Perhaps it was the media
attention that was given to the likes of Elon Musk but it certainly struck a vein with the population.
There is good reason for it. Autonomous vehicles have the potential to truly alter society as we know it. This will affect jobs, real estate, cargo, and how people spend their time. It also will alter personal vehicle ownership.
The question on everyone's mind is when will it become a reality?
To answer this question, it is best to look away from automobiles and look to where the greatest opportunity is: the shipping of cargo. In other words, the trucking industry is primed for disruption. There is big money on the line.
We are seeing the beginning of a network of autonomous routes.
TuSimple is testing its trucks with human drivers as a precaution. However, the goal is to rapidly remove them from cab and let the trucks drive themselves.
This is long-haul trucking which will alter the industry but not completely eliminate the need for human drivers. It is the proverbial path of least resistance since the capabilities required are a lot less than driving around town. The last leg from the hubs that will be set up are going to be handled by human drivers.
Ultimately, TuSimple plans on having autonomous routes in all 48 states by 2024. The roll out plan is as follows:
According to the article, the first phase, covering the rest of this year and 2021, trucks will have travel routes between Phoenix, Tucson, El Paso, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. By 2022 and 2023 services will expand to include Los Angeles and Jacksonville, Fla.. Finally, in 2023 and 2024, automatic truck operations will extend to all the other contiguous 48 states.
Source
It is pretty incredible to think about. We could see autonomous trucks operating full time over the next year on United States highways. This would still leave us a long way away from autonomous cars buzzing around town but it is a start.
The regulators might be more favorable to autonomous trucks than cars, especially long haul. There are distinct advantages over human drivers such as not getting tired, being able to handle longer routes, and, hopefully, more safety as compared to the human counterparts.
If TuSimple achieves its goal of having routes throughout all 48 states by 2024, what impact does that have on society? It will really change things greatly.
As I noted in other posts, things are about to roll out in a big way. The next 10-15 years will see the complete transformation of our world.
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