All the attention is on inflation. Fed Chair Powell was in front of Congress this week explaining what the Fed is going to do to bring it under control.
In this video I discuss how the Fed's sole focus is on the Phillip's Curve, a model that is long shown to be inaccurate. For that reason, we are not going to see a soft landing. The challenge is the Fed, in an effort to curb inflation, is risking an increase in deflauts. This is going to really stymie the economy.
Hence, by the Sept meeting, my forecast is the Fed is reversing course with their hawkish stance.
▶️ 3Speak
