There is a lot espoused about AI being in a hype cycle. The view of many is that it is being overhyped.
To me, this view is incorrect. Actually, AI is presently being underhyped. For this reason, it might be helpful to dig into what is taking place.
Generative AI is not just another technology. Many want to relate it to the Internet. Again, this is not accurate. The Internet was the networking of compute, allowing the sending and receiving of data.
What we are dealing with is a new form of compute. However, instead of dealing with input/output like before, this is actually a completely new creation. Basically, we are dealing with units of cognition. That is the output.
Another way of looking at this is units of productive intelligence.
Image generated by Ideogram
Why is it underhyped?
At present, there is very little adoption yet the revenue streams are already massive. The value generated from this technology will enter the tens of trillions of dollars.
For the moment, we are seeing increased production, in spite of the technology being in the embyiotic phase.
Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce, appeared on a podcast to explain what his company is understaking. Its goal, according to the CEO, is to create 1 billion AI agents. This is a mind numbing situation once we look into it.
He also mentioned something that we discussed. Salesforce is not going to higher any software engineers for 2025. The reason for this is because AI already made their present engineers 33% more productive.
Consider the dollars involved in that situation. Here we are looking at a massive addition to the bottom line. The costs are fixed with more revenue generating offerings rolling out.
The future of this company is A) the engineers will remain the same with production exploding or B) production will explode with engineering being downsized.
Nowhere in the equation is it likely that Salesforce hires more people for this role.
We see the impact in Hollywood and the media. jobs are being lost in droves as technological disruption spreads. Over the past year, it went from unnoticeable to undeniable.
AI keeps improving with each passing month. The number of skills that humans have which computers do not diminishes. This means that, eventually, all human services can be done.
The digital will exceed the physical realm. Bits are always faster than atoms. That said, the bridge, ie robotics, puts physical production on an exponential scale also. It also creates another data feedback loop, incorporating real world data into the equation.
What we are referring to is massive exponentials. With robotics, the AI curve will only enhance the economic productivity. It will reach a point where the only constraint is how quickly the robots can roll off the assembly line.
There are many who still deny what is taking place. We are looking at another 24 months before it becomes undeniable to anyone. The pace of advancement is such that we are going to see AI amaze those who are not paying careful attention.
Unfortunately, there will be a lot of people caught with their pants down.
