This is a statement I made a number of years ago. It was met with some pushback, something that is not unexpected. Most reject ideas that are too far away from the existing reference points.
Of course, none of us know the future and I could be totally awry on this one. However, as I watch what is taking place, especially from a technological standpoint, I sense where things are heading. We discuss them a bit on here but I thought I would clarify how I think things will unfold.
In this article we will embark upon why governments are doomed to fail and what will likely take their place.
Please note we are talking about governments, not governance.
Outdated System
The central premise on my theory is this:
Our government systems are completely outdated.
It is to the point where things are so vastly different that we are dealing with apples and oranges. While it is easy to point to the individuals (like the fossils in the United States Senate), it is bigger than that.
Our present government system, and all the iterations, was designed for the physical realm. It was created in a time when people operated in the world of atoms. There was no digital. In fact, there wasn't really a corporate world. A business was something that one could point to, usually a building. Certainly, there was a difference between the two but they were both physical entities.
This is why we still deal with geography. The physical nature of things means the invisible lines in the dirt were important. If you were born on one side of the line, you were part of one tribe, operating under their system. The same was true for the other side.
There is still some relevance to the existing system yet that is change quickly. We have a multi-decade track record of the impotency of governments in the new realm. Just look at file sharing and the illegal downloading of music. Do you remember when this was something the governments (and record companies) took on? What happened? Did they stop it?
We all know the answer.
Then we have films. How many websites are there streaming all the latest content? Are governments able to stop this?
It becomes a game of Whack-a-Mole.
Our present system was not designed for the digital world.
Confidence Crisis
There is another factor that is going to affect governments over the next couple decades.
Confidence, the root of all systems, is waning. After the actions of the last 5 years, we are clearly seeing people awakening to what is taking place. It is evident the corruption these systems have, meaning the majority are not benefiting.
It is likely this keeps increasing as we move towards the 2030s. Violence is already on the rise in many areas. We can expect civil unrest to accelerate in the second half of the 2020s. The close tie between politicians, media, and corporations is being exposed.
All of this puts the individuals who are benefitting in a very difficult position. When people start rebelling, historically, that leads to implosion. Some of the greatest empires in the world met their fate in that exact manner.
This will likely start with the weaker governments before spreading. In my view, none will be spared. It might take until the end of the century for all of the present systems to be eradicated but they will be.
By the way, this is why I believe that many countries will implement universal basic income at some point. That will be the governments attempt at remaining relevant.
The Network-State
The digital world is going to see the emergence of the Network-State This is already present to a degree. We could make the case that we see some characteristics with ones such as Facebook. Granted these are not very benevolent and probably worse than many governments, but it does exemplify the importance.
For example, those who have businesses on Facebook are affected instantly by a change in the terms of service. When something is sent through Congress or Parliament, it could take years to become law.
The Network-State operates in a much quicker manner. It is based upon the digital world.
Which brings us to Web3. This is a concept that is, at its core, without borders. Geographic location means absolutely nothing. What is interesting is the same tribal mentality is being applied to the blockchain networks being constructed. Here is where the battles of the future will reside. Of course, they will not be "warring" in the traditional sense.
We are going to see the network become a larger part of people's live. When we look at the crucial factor that affects their day-to-day activities, this is going to end up dominating. People are going to turn to the ecosystem for more of what they need.
Ultimately, the network better treat the people well. Unlike a physical government which makes it difficult to relocate, the network system is easy. If one is unhappy, moving to another network is the solution. Loyalty is going to be the valuable resource in the future. It is something that will have to be earned.
Generations Die Off
A lot of this is going to depend upon some generations being eliminated.
It is likely the ideas discussed here are not going to embrace by the older readers. Anyone over 50 is apt to find this unbelievable. After all, look at what the government did to CZ. The power of government cannot be denied.
Alas, they miss the point of change. Nothing is exempt from technological disruption. Over time, and it might take decades, all of the existing structures that are in place will be destroyed. Just look at how much the world changed over the last 20 years. Can you imagine what things will look like in 50?
This might be too much for the Boomers and Gen X to comprehend. It really doesn't matter since we will be long dead before what is being forecast takes place totally. In fact, we can make the case that many of us are an impediment to this. It is our belief system that stands in the way.
No matter. Our consent is not required.
Over the next 10-15 years, we are going to see many of our existing institutions obliterated. Long standing companies will meet their end. They are going to be the next Kodak and Blockbusters of the world. This is going to take place in automotive, media, and finance.
It is a step that provides insight.
Size does matter in that it buys time. That is all. The larger institutions could require a bit more time but, make no mistake, technology is not going to stop. As more resources are freed up by the obliteration of one entity (industry), it can be applied elsewhere.
We could say that government is the biggest fish out there. For that reason, it will be one of the last to fall but it will happen.
In the end, we will still have governance. This is something that is a part of the Network-State. At the moment, we are experimenting with some primal systems. That will also change over time as we determine what works well and what does not.
All of this is in keeping with technological trends. In 50 years, the largest institutions of today will be but memories. If this is in question, look at some from 50 years ago and tell me how many are still around, let alone at the top of the power structure.
Web3 is the original Internet on steroids. We saw the carnage that created. That is minor compared to the next phase.