For all the projections, suppositions, and forecasts, the truth is we cannot envision what is going to take place over the next 10 -20 years with these technologies. The only think I can say with certainty is that they are not going away. Beyond that, we are left without the proper imagination.
Why do I say this?
The answer is rather simple. We cannot project what is going to take place because we look at blockchain and cryptocurrency based upon what we know now and how we operate. In other words, we look at this as a replacement for something that exists today.
Looking back at the early days of the copy machine, we could see how it could replace the secretaries who were lined up typing up copies of documents. However, when these devices first rolled out, nobody could envision them acting as printers, copiers, and document storage devices. That was beyond the comprehension at that time.
When we look back at the Internet, something like conferencing made sense in the early days. Many foresaw the ability to interact. Yet, how many envisioned a full blown commercial application where billions would be sold simply by clicking a mouse? Heck, who could imagine paying bills online or watching videos like a television set?
We are at the same point with blockchain and cryptocurrency. It is viewed as a decentralized structure that can replace centralized servers. Also, we are starting to realize a new monetary system that replaces fiat. So far, as a replacement, our view is clear.
The problem arises in what we do not see. It is what we cannot envision that will be standard in the later part of the next decade as we close in on the 2030s. Where will these technologies be by that time? What will they be used for?
There is a saying in the technological world that goes like this: we usually overestimate the potential of technology in the short-term while under estimating it in the long-term.
This situation is compounded by the fact that we are seeing a convergence of numerous technologies at the same time. We are not sure how the wrapping of 5G, AR/VR, 3D printing, and automation will unfold. My view is we are going to see a massive explosion of innovation.
We are looking at an industry that has one big advantage of what took place over the last couple decades. The Internet actually saw us fall behind the historic innovation curve. How could that be when you have one of the most powerful creations ever invented at the fingertips of billions of people? The answer stands in centralization.
Centralization stiffles innovation.
As long as we proceed down the decentralized path, we are going to see an explosion of innovation. This will happen across the board on many different blockchains. Cryptocurrencies will explode along with projects that back them up. We are going to see people using these technologies as part of their daily lives.
In short, we can only imagine how different things will be in 15 years.
The Internet went public, I believe in 1989 or 1990. At that time, there were not too many people who would believe that people would be online all the time carrying devices in their pockets within 20 years. But that is exactly what happened.
We are witnessing a paradigm shift that is going to affect most aspects of society. What this will look like is, at this point, akin to science fiction. Nevertheless, it is going to happen.
These are some points to keep in mind when looking at the markets. There is a lot that will happen over the next decade which will really surprise us. We are entering an era of innovation.
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