A couple times we asked how much is the Internet worth? That is an impossible question to answer since there is no way to figure it all out. What we know is the medium is a central part of the lives of billions of people. For that reason, the value is unquestioned. However, putting an exact number on it cannot be done.
Something like Hive is always going to be a lot smaller. For this reason, when we look at the potential impact the ecosystem might make, can it be worth $1 trillion?
This is not referring to the market cap of the HIVE token itself, although that is a part of it. Instead, we are looking at everything that is tied to Hive.
It might seem crazy but the numbers surrounding cryptocurrency can get very big.
Few can dispute that Ethereum has a lot of money tied to it. When we look at what is taking place there, the numbers are incredible.
To start, the market cap of the token itself is about $400 million. Of course, that is only the starting point. When we start to look at what is built on there, we see how the numbers can get much bigger.
We also can presume that this will only grow over the next few years. Prices suffered a major pullback, putting them below where they were just a couple months ago. At the same time, projects are expanding each day, including issuing out more tokens as compared to the day before.
Just think about all the ERC-20 tokens and the projects they are related to.
To start, we have the different stablecoins that are worth tens of billions of dollars. While there is some dispute about the exact number issued, we cannot deny that there is a lot of value changing hands through the transactions. That alone substantiates a high price.
We also see the different DeFi projects. Ethereum was the epicenter in this and still has the most TVL. This gives a great deal of value to many of the projects that are being utilized.
Naturally, we would be remiss if we did not mention NFTs. Certainly a case can be made that the market is ahead of itself. Nevertheless, this does not take away from the overall potential of what is being developed nor the value that will be created down the road.
In doing a quick skim of the market caps of Ethereum related projects, we see projects that, at the moment, are worth $4 or $5 billion (or more). When we total all the different ones up, we can see how the total market cap can rival that of the base token.
It becomes evident the second layer will surpass the base layer in value. The only criteria is that enough is built.
With Hive, obviously the numbers are much smaller. However, we can see the same concept being applied.
In going through Hive-Engine, we can see what Splinterlands is generating.
Here is a list of some of the values related to certain assets tied to that game.
DEC $6.5 miillion
TRACT $83 million
CHAOS $3 million
SPS $23 million
PLOT $43 million
VOUCHER $1.2 million
That is over $150 million in value that is presently contained in this different assets. We also are not including the decks people are holding. Who knows how much that equates to.
The point is we can see, with continued growth, the numbers for Splinterlands going up many times over. This $150 million can easily turn into many billions of dollars. In fact, if the trend in virtual land holds, these numbers might get explode.
Regardless of the exact figures, we can see what Splinterlands is building can result in enormous valuations.
And this is only one project.
The goal is to create multiple Splinterlands. Hive needs to keep developing where an assortment of projects duplicate the success. This is not going to happen overnight since Hive is still flying under the radar. However, over time, as our own network effect starts to take off, we could see other projects becoming viable in their own niches.
Reaching this point means the growth in value will become exponential. Each little crevice could see an increase, radically affecting the overall.
It is a concept that might be difficult to comprehend at the moment. For many, it seems as if Hive is spinning its wheels, not really going anywhere. This is compounded since many are only looking at the base token, not factoring in the potential of what else is being created.
We often state the key for Hive is to get half a dozen Splinterlands going. By this we mean projects that have appeal to a particular audience and gets to the stage in development where it starts to attract a fair number of users. In the last year, we can see how Splinterlands accomplished this. For now, we are awaiting a second one to appear.
This is not always going to be the case. With the work being done on the Hive Application Framework (HAF), the goal is to make development on Hive as simple as possible. Instead of having to learn blockchain, coders simply use what they know. The integration is the same as any other database. That means a second one will appear at some point.
It is possible that Ethereum, with the assorted projects, is nearing this level already. If not, another significant step higher in the markets would result in it exceeding this level.
So what does that mean for Hive? It is only logical to forecast that the entire cryptocurrency realm is going to keep expanding and, thus, appreciate in value. More utility is consistently being created which will enhance the network effects. Hive is a microcosm of the much larger whole.
A point to consider is whatever the value that is created by the projects tied to Hive, what part of it are you going to receive? Are you going to be able to enjoy life changing money based upon the growth of the entire ecosystem.
A trillion dollars is a lot of money. That said, we are going to see many systems that are worth far more than that. If, for example, Ethereum is somewhere around $800 or $900 billion with all the projects taken into account, a 10X, not totally unreasonable, would have it closing in on $10 trillion.
The key to keep in mind is not so much what is here today but all the development that will occur over the next 5 years. What projects will we utilize in the middle of the decade? Here is where the numbers can get very large.
Could the entire ecosystem around Hive be worth a combined $1 trillion? What are your thoughts? Is this something that you are going to share in?
Let us know in the comments below.
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