It is over. Time for the fat lady to sing.
While estimates vary, we are embarking upon the Age of Intelligence. This means that AGI, ASI, and singularity are in play. For the most part, these can be viewed as academic terms. Benchmarks in the AI world are widely used by analysts. However, they ultimately mean nothing.
The key is adoption. This is directly tied to utility. We see the enterprise world lagging since there is inherent inertia within companies. It is something that doesn't change but, rather, get worked through.
Industries are adapting. While it is not at the same pace as the overall advancement, we see how this is radically altering the future. Anyone who watched what happened the last 12 months realizes we are seeing a trajectory never witnessed before.
In this article I will delve into how it is a done deal.
Over the last few years I focused a lot of attention on Hollywood. This was the ideal candidate to watch for AI disruption. The reasons are many.
To start, it is an unregulated business. Many talk about the need for AI in healthcare and education. The inertia here is huge, with regulation stopping progress in many areas. This will only slow the inevitable but it does cause a delay.
The other reason why Hollywood is ripe for disruption is because it is a 2 dimensional world. Think about that for a moment. Most of what we consume, including all that is related to actors and actresses, are 2D figures. Unless you happened to see one in person, how do you know if he or she is real? For the moment, it is obvious. The future, nonetheless, will not be that way.
A final reason is the movie stack. We often look at the part the public sees. There are a lot of jobs impacted by changes to the stack. For example, when a scene is generated, that affects costume people, set designers, laborers, and script writers. All are apt to take a hit, albeit not uniformly.
Anyone who looked at an exponential curve can start to see how video generators, as an example, have progressed. AI is a major topic during the early labor discussions with the movie studios.
In public, CEOs are playing it cool. In reality, boardrooms are panicking.
The entire equation is changing before everyone's eyes. Some claim that we have AGI already. This is, of course, disputed. Others are more optimistic believing the singularity is already here.
Again, this might be nothing more than definitional exercises, amounting to little in the real world. Executives do not care what it is labeled. The concern is what impact this has on the business.
One of the main issues that few understand is how the Foundry Window was obliterated.
The Foundry Window:
The current critical period (approximately 18 months) during which the technical standards, data rights, and supply chains for the AI age are being set ("hardening").
This means new dependencies are being hardcoded into the substrate. It is a risk for old guard companies since being on the outside amounts to certain demise.
One shift we see is away from the basis of operation. When we look at metrics, everything is changing. Is EBITA even valid anymore? For now, the answer is yes. However, in 24 month, past the 18 month Foundry Window, it might not be.
What metric should be focused upon? That is still wide open. Nevertheless, perhaps we are looking at something tied to energy. If electricity transforms into cognitive ability, then we are looking at the potential for a metric such as return on kWh (or something to that effect).
Return on Capital takes on a different meaning. Basically, all companies will be based upon the return of money spend on generating cognitive output. When we think about tying this into robots, it becomes clear how this transitions from the 2D realm to 3D.
While the focus is upon Google, OpenAI, xAI, and Nvidia, the reality is that we might see the biggest impact taking place with the toilet manufacturer. The present leader is the one at risk of being left behind.
Rinse and repeat.
Many want to compare the path of AI to the Internet. The latter was networking. This is a different realm since we are dealing with a new form of compute.
Moore's Law was the standard in that realm for decades. That is now a tortoise. AI is a hare with a rocket tied to its back.
Do not buy into the naysayers who cite present limitations. This is the worst the technology will ever be.
Let that sink in.
