It is long said that technology creates more jobs than it destroys.
Historically, this is an accurate statement. Therefore, the presumption this will continue is a logical one. Many feel that the threat of technology to jobs is nothing to fret about. After all, the Chicken Littles of the world have long screamed that technology was going to create mass unemployment.
Thus far, it has not.
However, I feel to take this position, in light of what is taking place, is a mistake. Even today, I came across a number of articles that discussed how rapidly things are changing.
An article in Bloomberg discussed the idea that advancements in robotics means 120 million workers will need to be retrained. Their jobs are being automated which necessitates a greater skill set for workers. This is where companies must step in and provide the training.
The challenge with this outlook is that, historically, we have not been very good about retraining our workforce. We tend to educate people to the point where they can get a job and that is it. Perhaps there is more training as one advances through a company yet little is offered in terms of massive shifts in employment. Some opt to return to school yet that is no guarantee in this era.
Andrew Yang is one of the candidates trying to win the Democratic Nomination for President. He has a technology background meaning he is one of the few in politics who understands. He stated the other day that fast food is primed for automation and the replacement of workers. This stems from the fact that much of the work is repetitive along with the costs increasing as $15 per hour mandates go into effect.
It is a similar situation that the retail worker is facing. Many companies such as WalMart are implementing self checkouts and robots on the floor in an effort to curb costs. The company states it is to reposition workers to better serve customers but most know otherwise.
https://gizmodo.com/why-fast-food-is-the-ticking-time-bomb-of-job-automatio-1837898231
Auto workers long faced layoffs due to automation. The manufacturing sector, contrary to popular belief, was never stronger in the United States. The country makes more than it ever did before. At issue is the fact it achieved this level of productivity while eliminating over 1M manufacturing jobs. We are seeing the proverbial "more with less".
The UAW started fighting against automation and robotics over 30 years ago. Over the last three decades, the union battled against the implementation of them and lost. This fact is evident when one looks at any automobile manufacturing plant.
Workers that are left in this industry are facing another blow.
With the introduction of electric vehicles, workers are going to face another shot at being downsized. At the core is the fact that electric vehicles are much easier to assemble than their fossil fuel counterparts. Without a gas tank, exhaust system, and much simpler drivetrains, the process to produce an EV is less labor intensive.
Here again, we see another leg down in the employment sector.
I was talking with an ex-coworker today and told him we will most likely never see a job market as strong as it is right now. This is the apex of what it will be. Going forward, we will probably see less jobs available that the general public can fill. As automation expands into different facets of the business world, labor is going to bear the brunt of it.
One of the biggest reasons this is true is simply the fact that we live in a corporatocracy these days. Consider how much of one's personal spending goes to mega-corporations. In the United States, my guess it tops 90%. Perhaps a minor portion goes to local, small businesses but the bulk goes to Wall Street.
This creates a major problem since Wall Street corporations exist for one reason: to maximize profits for shareholders. No longer are the employees the holders of the stock. Instead, we see Wall Street funds that only care about profits and stock appreciation. Executives are operating under a mandate for continued growth no matter what the cost.
For this reason, technology is their friend.
Anytime the ROI makes sense, a CFO is going to sign off on replacing workers with automation. The latest advancements are seeing ROIs in as little as 18 months. Going one step further, cloud based solutions often are priced on a monthly basis meaning a cost savings can be realized immediately.
Hence, it is in the company's best interest to get rid of as much of the payroll as possible.
Many of the technologies that are entering the business world as employee replacement mechanisms were in the works for years. Advancements were made over the past decade which is finally bearing results. It was not an overnight process yet it is one that is at our doorstep.
FinTech was started 17 years ago. It entered the financial sector rather slowly yet kept building. Over that time, we saw the disappearance of stock brokers, floor traders, and now analysts. All were lost to computerization and automation. Many were able to leave the financial world and move to something else.
My view is that the window is closing on that.
We are one recession away from mass layoffs. A decade ago, we saw a "lost generation" of workers. Many were put out with the financial collapse and never regained full employment again. They got by with part time jobs or reduced pay until they reached the age of Social Security.
Many who are affected this time will not be so lucky.
Technology keeps forging ahead at an accelerating pace. No matter what anyone tries to do to stop it, the evolution continues. We are creating more data that ever before which feeds our AI systems. This increases the capabilities of our networks as algorithms become "smarter". While we are still a long way from artificial general intelligence, we are seeing another narrow systems linked together to have an impact.
Ultimately, I believe that cryptocurrency is going to be the "reset" that society needs. The present system is going to collapse on top of itself at some point. When it does, there is going to be a lot of fallout that will be devastating to most. However, what is being erected in parallel to this system is going to offer a life vest to those who are drowning.
There are only a few who are benefiting from the way things are. They have absolutely no incentive to change since their profits keeps growing. As their wealth piles up, they get further disconnected from what is truly taking place. This creates a blind spot that will end up hitting them like a brick.
What happens when a business has no customers? Take this to a larger degree and ask the same of an entire economy.
This is a situation that we could be looking at. Technology is creating for an environment where the cost to produce is very cheap. What gets difficult is when those who can buy what is produced are eliminated. Then what?
Technology is also going to be what saves people. By involving oneself in cryptocurrency, insulation is in place. One is protected against the inevitable collapsing of fiat currencies. Debt rates are only going to grow and, when things get real bad, governments will turn to more debt. As we saw the last decade, that is providing diminishing returns.
Open source is a godsend to humanity. We are able to accelerate innovation since people are not obligated to continually start from scratch. Advancement comes much quicker when one can take what was already produced, add a few more lines of code to expand functionality, and, presto, new product. Over time, the net result is much greater development.
I once read someone questioning most of the jobs we have. It was that individual's belief that we create a lot of jobs just so people have "something to do". The truth is either the jobs are not needed or they could easily be automated yet we keep them around so people are employed. This appears to be a dying idea. Companies now have incentive to eliminate jobs. After all, reducing payroll provides a benefit to what really matters to these people: the next quarterly report.
Wall Street's short-term thinking can be offset by the long-term outlook of the cryptocurrency industry. As we embark upon the buildout of Web 3.0, we are formulating an new economy for people to latch onto. A few decades from now, we will look back at the present system with disbelief. How could we possibly operate under such an inane premise is something we will ask.
Technology is the fork in the job market. Yet, at the same time, it is providing the tools to save us from the system we allowed to be erected.
The time of scarcity is coming to an end. We just need to make sure the tools are in place for the masses to benefit as opposed to a select few.
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