What will things look like in a decade or two?
This is a question people have been asking for decades. While futurists and Sci-Fi lovers tended to romanticize things, the reality is, in most instances, not much was different. This was the case in the 2000s.
Prior to ChatGPT, what was really different? Mobile was big but that was the convergence of 3 major technologies. In other words, it was simply a repackaging. Then we have streaming which obliterated a few different industries. That said, we still watch programs or films by looking at a screen. The delivery mechanism might be different yet we were still sitting on the couch.
Generative AI is quickly altering this. We are seeing advancement in many areas that were previously stalled. It is also bringing us to a level where a lot of services face disruption.
What does this mean economically and from a monetary standpoint? We will take a look at this, including against the backdrop of a major industry that costs trillions.
Consider this idea:
I was watching a video where the guest mentioned he knew of a start up that was trying to roll out an free AI doctor by the end of the year. Naturally, we cannot presume this will occur but, as a thought exercise, let's go with it.
If something like this emerges, what will happen? At first, it will be resisted. Every mistake it makes will get media attention. Anyone who knows the evolution of technology understands how this works.
Over time, things will get better. Since this is a language model, it will not take long. We can, based upon this timeline, forecast that the second and third iteration would likely hit in 2026.
Judging by the path of evolution these models follow, that scenario would likely mean we are dealing with a powerful application by the end of 2026.
What impact does this have? According to Grok, here is what the situation is like in the United States:
The United States spends a significant amount on healthcare each year. Based on the most recent data, in 2023, U.S. healthcare spending reached $4.9 trillion. This figure comes from the National Health Expenditure (NHE) estimates by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), reflecting total spending across all sources, including federal, state, and local governments, private insurance, and out-of-pocket costs. On a per-person basis, this translates to approximately $14,570 annually, given the U.S. population of around 330 million. Healthcare spending in 2023 accounted for 17.6% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), highlighting its substantial role in the economy.
Of course, if we took the global figures, it would be much higher.
A free AI doctor would not eliminate all the healthcare costs. Treatments, surgeries, and hospital visits do not instantly vanish. However, the ability to diagnose would be available to all.
It is anyone's guess how long it would take before regulation made this an acceptable path. My thoughts are that it will follow overall AI acceptance. Resistance exists until enough people reach the point where it is trusted regardless of the industry.
The point is we are dealing with one concept. Stretch that out into accounting, legal, financial, and education. Suddenly, a lot of expenses that one could have disappear (or are seriously reduced).
I theorized that stablecoins will be the medium of exchange going forward. We will not see most crypto operate in that capacity since they serve other purposes such as access or value capture.
The latter will likely still be present regardless of the economics in an AI world. But what about the medium of exchange? When most services are free, how does that change the structure of the economy.
For the moment we are referring to knowledge work. If we incorporate robots into the conversation, a duplication of this in the physical world is possible. Now we see the situation pushed to another level.
The question then becomes is crypto (stablecoins) just a bridge to a post-monetary world? Overall, there are still biases against a lot of what we are discussing. People do not have the trust. This is simply a temporary matter. Humans resist what is new.
I like the example of calculations. Almost all of the calculations done online are computer generated. Does anyone question the volume on a stock traded or the likes on a video? We know the calculations are correct. The source can naturally be questioned since many likes are done with bots. As for stock market volume, we know the overwhelming majority of those trades are initiated by computers.
Yet, in spite of that, millions of people still invest (trade) the stock market.
Many are forecasting that technology is going to lead us to an age of abundance. This is something I started writing about many years ago.
My view this is a certainty albeit not a path without difficulties. We are probably going to see at least a decade of chaos due to the implication of these different technologies. Humans adapt slowly to change. What is worse is human systems lag even more. This could create a lot of disorder and society grapples with the changes.
After that, say in the 2040s, what do things look like. By that time, we are likely in an economic singularity although GDP will have even less meaning than today.
We are now entering some of the Star Trek concepts. But think about it for a moment: if knowledge work is being disrupted and the cost of information is already pushing zero, what does that mean? The span from information to service is simply the development of an agent (application).
What role does money have in such an environment? At that point, what is the make up of the economy? We saw how things changed with information. The "information super highway" of the 1990s actually created the information economy. Even the physical is now driven by information.
AI is putting this on steroids. As we can see, areas of payment might be eliminated due to the fact that an agent handles it.
It makes for interesting thought exercises.
