Many are projecting that AGI will be achieved in either 2026 or 2027. This is a forecast so it should not be considered as fact. It is something, however, that we have to consider.
One of the major problems with charting a path for the future is determining what we are talking about. What is AGI? If you ask 10 people, you might get 8 different answers. Thus, we have a bit of a moving target.
That said, it appears the most common definition is AGI is the state where a computer is better in a particular field then even the top expert. Of course, this applies to all (knowledge) fields.
If that is the case, we are looking at individuals have capabilities beyond even the smartest people today.
A second factor in this was exemplified by Deepseek. Regardless of the totality of their claims, it cannot be denied efficiency gains were a major leap forward. This was not unexpected since it is the common trend.
There is a high probability that we see models run on smartphones at some point in 2026.
What this means is people, with a couple years, could have AGI in their pockets.
How does this impact the economy? We will take a look.
Here is a question: what happens to online services once each individual has this technology available to him or her?
In other words, why pay for a service when you can spin the same one up in a matter of a few seconds (or at most minutes)?
Some question the coding skills of these AI systems. For the moment, there are limitations, especially with higher end stuff. That said, we are seeing the ability to handle the basics, such as designing an AI agent, moving rapidly.
As always, where do things stand in 18 months? Keep in mind, this is a lifetime in the AI world.
My point is that we could see a radical shift in the online economy by 2027. Knowledge work is being completely revamped due to the pace of this advancement. The physical realm is going to be a bit slower, with the early 2030s as the target there.
So what does this mean for all the services that people commonly use? Here is where things get interesting.
One of the key barometers in the future is the kicking off of network effects. This is crucial for increasing economic productivity. Since we are dealing with a digital basis (even with robots), the concept is the driver of output.
Think of the impact of an AirBNB or Uber. These platforms were very successful because they allowed individuals to join a larger network. Hence, the singular unit of a car or house became part of a larger whole. The application brought buyers and sellers together, facilitating the services.
Unfortunately, this is not enough for the future. This is Web 2.0 at its finest.
The next generation is going to require community. This means subscription based services tied together with other community members. It is akin to the early days of commerce, with towns being the basis. In them were individuals who formed the community, providing products and services the other members required.
What we are looking at is the digitized form of this. A concept floated out there is the network-state.
This is what feeds into the network effects.
It is the network that will be the vehicle to bring people together. Naturally, not everyone will participate in every network. In fact, we are going to enter a time of abundant networks.
The platforms that are build is what will be the feeder system. One thing to keep in mind is the necessity to shift away from thinking in terms of humans. Web 3.0 will be agentic. Network effects from agents will be equally as valid. The economic output from agents compared to humans will be heavily tilted.
We saw a massive tranformation due to the introduction of the Internet. The "new economy" has shifted a lot of things. Many industries were disrupted, with new ones evolving. The percentage of the economy that is software is estimated to be around 10%. It is a number that will only grow.
If we go back to the 1990s, not many foresaw the silo system that we have today. However, it was actually rather obvious if we think about it. The idea of a Google, Facebook, or Spotify was a logical outcome if we were aware. Some were projecting it, often to ridicule.
Today, we are more in tune with how the digital world operates. Generative AI is simply another form of computing. The "second Internet" is the connecting of agents, just like the original networked personal computers (and other devices). Hence, we can draw from the past to envision the future.
The network because the main economic driver. This caused the network effects, resulting in companies worth trillions of dollars. These valuations were never seen before, considered asinine a couple decades back. In fact, the total value of the Internet is basically incalculable.
What we do know is the wealth generated is a couple orders of magnitude greater than what preceded it. This is going to be repeated.
For years, it was said the Internet is the biggest copy machine ever created. Information would simply replicate. With generative AI, we are looking at the largest creation machine (digital) the world as ever seen. The early days of chatbots and other generators show us how this is the case.
Our economy was transformed by the Internet. It is happening again. The major difference is we are not talking about multi-decades for the impact to be truly felt.
This is going to happen a lot quicker.
