Humans are constantly fighting the normalcy bias.
Why are some ahead of the curve when it comes to realizing the impact of technology? Over the last few years, I had a number of discussions with people who felt that something (whatever the topic) was not going to change.
For example, legacy automotive would always be in control and Tesla would be nothing more than a niche company. That was, and still is, a viewpoint by many.
Then we had Hollywood. During the labor strikes of a few years ago, I said Hollywood was dead. This was a combination of factors although most of my conclusion was based upon the advancement of technology. Ultimately, Hollywood started sinking before the technology took over. The latter, however, is a guarantee.
Almost three years later, we see it advance to the point where more people are mentioning it.
The challenge is normalcy bias. People get stuck in their way of thinking and are slow to change. This is not being closed minded. Instead, it is a feature that stems from the nature of human reality throughout history.
In this article we will discuss how things are changing and why many will be in a "state of confusion" in the next few years.
Normalcy bias is the idea that things do not change a great deal. Naturally, this is much of human history. It leads to the approach that what I am experiencing now is how things will always be.
In other words, there was a baseline that people mentally operated from.
Even when there was rapid change, such as a natural disaster (say a flooding), people worked quickly to return things to "normal". Once the water receded and things were rebuilt, the village was mostly restored to its previous state. Perhaps a few measures were taken to reduce the risk of future flooding such as building a wall or moving the village to higher ground.
Life, for the most part, did not change.
This means our brain has a tough time processing things such as exponentials. The idea that things will change radically in just a year or two is incomprehensible to most of us. This is not a natural state for humans.
When we look at an exponential curve, we understand the basics yet have difficulty truly extrapolating what it means.
The line that exhibits linear growth is how our brains typically work. We are dealing with growth in this chart but it could apply to anything that is exponential. When we focus upon the other line, the true gap between the two is hard to fathom.
So far, when it comes to AI, the impact was minimal. We did see advancement yet it has not disrupted to the degree that we are about to see.
Emad Mostaque is on record as saying we have less than 1,000 days (2028) before most jobs related to human work disappear. While his timeline might be off be a few hundred days, the point is clear: he is looking at the exponential and not reverting to normalcy bias.
The world is moving to one of continual flooding.
Consider what happens when a flood happens. The town is going about its business and, within a few hours, it is under water. However, to fully grasp this analogy, we have to not look for the water to recede. Instead, the town is changed forever. Very little is the same after the flood occurs.
Our normalcy bias is only going to hinder us. Many still believe things will revert to normal. The drop in global auto sales is only temporary. Hollywood filming will rebound. Humans will continue to be the most "intelligent" beings on the planet.
The mantra in Hollywood was "hang on until 2025". That year passed and it was a year barely better than 2024 (which was horrific). Things do not look much better in 2026.
Some are starting to realize that AI is better than then in certain areas. This means that the human will never make up that ground. The distances between what the computer can do and the human will only spread.
Again, we are in the early stages of this. Very few are seeing this in their field. That will not be the case in two years.
A non-AI world is as likely to appear as going to Blockbuster Video to rent a movie. Those days are long gone. People are going to have a period of "confusion" as the massive pace is realized by society. AI is moving faster than anything other technology. The smart phone, in the US, went from basically 0 to 70% market share in a bit over 6 years.
AI is being used by almost everyone in the developed world to some degree even if it isnt a chat bot. We are barely 3 years since GPT3 was introduced.
