It is negotiation time again.
The Hollywood unions are coming to the table. Their three year contract is coming to an end. In 2023, the industry was upended by the strikes by the Writer's Guild and SAG. This closed production and caused massive losses for the industry.
It has not recovered.
Over the last couple years, the hope was to hold out for (fill in the blank). First it was 2024. Then 2025. Now 2026.
The problem is we are dealing with an animal that is already cooked in my opinion. If we see another round of strikes, this turkey is finished.
In this article we will look at the idea of another strike.
Many thought the unions won the last time around. If we use employment as the barometer, it was a total failure. Here we see how tens of thousands lost their jobs in the industry over the last few years. We do have to mention that not all of those were in these two unions.
That said, many writers mentioned how their work went to near nothing. Many left the industry to take other jobs. The opportunity to make a living in that industry declined.
We are at that time again.
Talks between Hollywood labour unions and studios over new employment contracts kicked off on Monday (February 9) as representatives from actors guild SAG-AFTRA and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) began formal negotiations in Los Angeles.
The current contract expires at the end of June.
So how will this turn out? That is impossible to know since we are not in the negotiations. What I can state is that it is a no win for the unions.
If there is a strike, their demise will accelerate. On the other hand, coming to an agreement might buy some time but that is all.
In the end, they are done.
It is widely expected that the big issues for discussion in the contract talks will include health care and AI.
It is the latter that is the nail in the coffin.
The Internet was abuzz with the fight scene between Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt. This was AI generated and sent many off the deep end. While there were still major flaws with the video, it is evident of where things are going.
We are talking about early 2026 technology. What do these video generators look like in 2028 or 2029?
That is the problem facing SAG. As for the writers, their time to deletion might be near. Many are seeing the capability of generative AI as developing scripts. Again, this is not 100% so there is still a bit further to go. But as with the last question, where is the technology in mid-2027?
The unions were put on alert. Disney just named a new CEO. One of the things he stated was the company would look more to AI for creating content. Even though he came from the parks division, he realizes the capability. In fact, since he doesn't have the working relations within the film and television division, he might be bringing the "outside eye" to the situation.
Last time, one of the unions struck for 118 days. If that happens again, we will see devastation an order of magnitude larger for the workers.
Either union would face the impact of accelerated AI development. This is already moving at rapid speed. By increasing the activity, it only improves the models at a faster pace.
I stated that, eventually, our movie stars will be AI. Since most are two dimension figures since we never met them, having AI stars is not a stretch. We see the popularity of animation. This is simply the next step forward.
If Hollywood goes on strike, it will spell the demise for those jobs. Unfortunately, even if they come to an agreement, the outcome is the same.
